La Nina, October rain: What it means for kharif harvest, early rabi sowing

While the monsoons have helped the kharif crop, any extra rains through September and October could adversely impact the standing crop, while a harsh winter due to La Nina could affect perishables

Earlier this month, the Indian Council of Agriculture Research (Icar) issued advisories to farmers to take precautions against termites, white flies, sucking pests, and other pests and insects that typically attack crops in the current weather conditions.

 

With the annual monsoon on its way back over most parts of India and water bodies finally drying up after weeks of surplus rains, the chances of pest attacks have increased over a number of standing crops.

 

Monsoon helps kharif

 

The monsoon itself - after lashing the country with surplus rains for most weeks June through September - seems to simply be refusing to abate from many parts. This, too, could have an impact on standing crops if the rains make a comeback in October.

 

The Union Agriculture Commissioner PK Singh was recently reported as saying that the county's kharif foodgrain production is likely to surpass the government's target of 171.39 million tonnes (MT) set for the 2025-26 crop year (July-June), thanks to higher coverage and favourable monsoon rains.

 

He said despite lower coverage, the prospects for oilseeds and pulses crops remain positive as productivity is expected to be higher due to good crop conditions.

 

Singh said the damage to crops due to flood and heavy rainfall was minimal compared to the overall sown area in the kharif season.

 

“Out of the total paddy acreage of 3.2-3.3 million hectares (mn/ha) in Punjab, standing crop in around 200,000 ha have been destroyed due to the floods, which is not big in the overall scheme of things,” Singh had told Business Standard a few weeks earlier.

 

Kharif crop coverage has also exceeded that of previous years, rising to more than 110 mn/ha from the usual 109.5 mn/ha in recent years, driven by increased acreage of paddy and maize, he said.

 

For oilseeds, particularly soybean, the cultivated area was lower but crop conditions remained very good, with the possibility of higher productivity. The same applied to pulses, Singh said.

 

Inflation worries under check, for now

 

A good kharif harvest will help the government keep food inflation under check which has been below the RBI tolerance band of 2-6 per cent since February 2025.

 

The consumer food price index has remained within the tolerance range for so long mainly due to a good rabi harvest in 2025 as well as an extended zero-duty window of imports for most pulses and edible oils for almost a year. The curb on exports of wheat and wheat products and also other cereals have also helped keep prices manageable.

 

Going forward, if the assessment made by the union agriculture commissioner holds true, the good monsoon will help in keeping inflation under check.

 

However, if rains resume with renewed vigour in October, which some weather models have projected for parts of western and southern India, then it could have an impact not only on the late-sown standing kharif crops but also on vegetable and fruit supplies.

 

The Indore-based Soybean Processors Association of India (Sopa) last week said in a statement that the crop in almost 44 per cent of sown area in Rajasthan, India's third largest state, is of very poor quality due to excessive rains. In Madhya Pradesh, the country's largest soybean producer, crops in almost 15 per cent area are of poor quality, while in Maharashtra, that number stands at about 11 per cent. Sopa added that due to excessive rains, diseases such as yellow mosaic and aerial blight have started affecting the crop. Soybean has been sown in around 11.56 mn/ha this year, which is 0.26 mn/ha less than last year.

 

Standing crop faces damage from late rains

 

A report from research organisation Crisil in early September said that persistent heavy rainfall through August in Punjab, Haryana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana has heightened concerns over the standing crop, while Punjab, which faced its worst floods in decades, is likely to see damage to paddy, cotton, and cauliflower.

 

Rajasthan, too, is seeing yield risks in maize, cotton, bajra, jowar, green gram, and black gram, while other states have reported localised impacts.

 

With September coinciding with key growth stages of kharif crops such as paddy, cotton, soybean, maize, and onion, rainfall remains a crucial factor to be monitored.

 

Aastha Gudwani, India chief economist at Barclays India, said in a report released Tuesday that with the end of the season, any erratic rainfall and assessment of crop damage from flooding in the northwest region will be critical to monitor to understand the impact on kharif output.

 

"The IMD states that 'There is an increased likelihood of La Niña conditions developing during the post monsoon season', which may result in unseasonal excess rain," the report said. It added that it expects rainfall activity to be 'above normal' over central and peninsular regions in the upcoming week, and 'normal to above normal' over most parts of northwest and east India, indicating continued surplus rains in the last week of the season.

 

La Nina lurks ahead

 

The emergence of a short La Nina in October-December after a long neutral phase could also complicate matters, since a harsh early winter might spell more trouble for perishables.

 

Though the soil moisture is projected to be good due to extended monsoon this year, much will depend on the intensity and timing of the weather over the next few months for a strong rabi harvest and preventing spoilage to late sown kharif crops.

 

IMD will issue its forecast for the winter in late November.

 

As of September 22, the southwest monsoon was almost seven per cent surplus with most of North India recording rains in excess of 30 per cent of the normal since June 1.

 

In short, when it comes to the monsoon and its impact on standing crops, the worst is not yet over.