Niti Aayog paper on India-US trade deal goes offline, raising questions

The paper called for lower tariffs on soybean and corn from the US, both of which would be genetically modified, while their byproducts could hurt the domestic processing industry and ethanol makers

It was around May 30, when India’s leading think tank and policy-setting body, the Niti Aayog, uploaded a working paper on India-US trade titled ‘Promoting India-US Agricultural Trade Under the New US Trade Regime'.

 

The paper, written by Raka Saxena and Niti Aayog member Ramesh Chand, both well-known names in the field of agriculture, evoked strong reactions from a section of farmers' groups as well as some industry associations. Now, just about a month after its publication, the paper no longer exists on the Niti Aayog website. While the paper continues to be listed, the accompanying document is no longer online, as it were.

 

Though there has been no official confirmation on the paper's withdrawal, the events that followed its publication are of considerable interest.

 

What did the paper say?

 

Of the many suggestions in paper, the ones on import of soybean oil, soybean seed and corn or maize from the US evoked the maximum response, since it advocated granting some concessions to the US on the import of soybean oil.

 

It also suggested allowing import of soybean seed from the US and using it for extracting oil through port-based mills and exporting the remnant soybean meal (which is usually 82 per cent of the seed) to meet global demand.

 

The catch? All soybean seed from the US is genetically modified (GM).

 

“This would avoid allowing GM feed meal into the domestic markets),” the paper suggested.

 

On imports of corn or maize, the paper suggested allowing corn imports which could be used in meeting ethanol blending targets and then using its by-product DDGS or Distiller’s Dried Grains with Soluble entirely for exports.

 

To keep GM out of the food chain, the paper advocated exporting both soybean meal and DDGS derived from extracting the imported beans and corn. Both soybean meal and DDGS are a major ingredient of feed meal for the livestock industry.

 

Trade sources said that in FY25, India imported around 900,000 corn - largely from non-GMO sources in Myanmar and Ukraine - while in the 2023-24 edible oil year that ended in November 2024, India imported 3.4 million tonnes (MT) of soybean oil from Argentina and Brazil, which was extracted from GM beans.

 

“However, the oils don’t contain the protein which makes them somewhat non-GM,” a senior industry official explained.

 

The working paper was not alone in its recommendations; a few months earlier, a few senior agriculture experts had also advocated opening up India’s farm sector to select US imports.

 

GM food angle raises hackles

 

Nonetheless, the working paper caused a furore within the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)-affiliated farmers' union, the Bhartiya Kisan Sangh (BKS), which issued a strongly-worded statement on June 14 saying that the working paper's suggestions were against the interest of the country as well as its farmers.

 

“Opening up Indian agriculture to GM food under US pressure could put the livelihood of nearly 700 million Indians dependent on agriculture at risk,” said Mohini Mohan Mishra, general secretary of the BKS. 

 

BKS was not alone - other sectors that could also be impacted by the recommendations voiced their displeasure, too.

 

Sugar, soybean industries worried

 

The paper, which was published even as India was negotiating hard with the US on a bilateral trade deal, also reportedly worried sections of the domestic industry.

 

The soybeans processing industry felt that bringing imported US soybeans from the ports to the processing industry located in the hinterland was not feasible and uneconomical. 

 

Some reports said that the sugar sector was also worried about increased corn imports for ethanol at a time when they were increasingly losing space to grains as the main feedstock for producing ethanol.

 

The final blow: farmers' pressure

 

Amid all this, on June 23, a delegation from the politically-unaffiliated Bhartiya Kisan Union (BKU) met senior officials from the Niti Aayog to present their objections to the working paper.

 

The BKU, which is an off-shoot of the original BKU headed by farmer leader Rakesh Tikait, later claimed in a press statement that the Niti Aayog had decided to withdraw the working paper in view of suggestions made by farmers. It also circulated a picture of BKU leaders meeting with the officials.

 

Separately, senior Niti Aayog officials confirmed to Business Standard that the said paper has indeed been withdrawn and will be re-released after ‘wider’ stakeholder consultation.

 

On June 30, senior Congress leader and former Union minister Jairam Ramesh also claimed in a post on X that Niti Aayog had withdrawn the working paper. He alleged that the Narendra Modi government was prioritising midwestern American farmers over their counterparts in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan.   

The report that wasn’t 

May 30: NITI Aayog publishes a working paper that advocates opening up soybean and corn imports from the US as part of the trade deal  

June 14: RSS-affiliated Bharatiya Kisan Sangh rejects the paper’s contents and arguments 

June 23: Bharatiya Kisan Union (apolitical) claims that the Aayog has withdrawn the paper

June 30: Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh posts on X that Aayog has withdrawn the paper