India, China airlines to vie for bigger market share as skies open

Indian carriers led by IndiGo and Air India are poised for a head-to-head battle with Chinese carriers to grab a bigger share in the lucrative India-China sector, which is being opened up once again for direct flights after suspension of operations for over five years from early 2020.

 

In 2019, when direct flights were on, Chinese carriers China Eastern, China Southern, China Air, and Shandong were the kings, collectively dominating with an 89 per cent share of India-China seats, according to CAPA-OAG data. Air India, the only big player in the international space, was in financial trouble, managing with an 11 per cent share and flying mostly from Delhi to Shanghai and Beijing.

 

In September 2019, IndiGo entered the fray with a Delhi-Chengdu flight, and then added another from Kolkata to Guangzhou the next month, soon grabbing 16.8 per cent of the overall market, the data showed. But then Covid intervened.

 

On October 26 this year, IndiGo will be resuming its services between Kolkata and the industrial hub of Guangzhou. It will fly on this route thrice a week. The airline is also readying for another flight from Delhi to Guangzhou, thought the date for its launch has not yet been finalised.

 

According to sources, Air India is also preparing for a flight between Delhi and Shanghai by the end of the year. Apart from China Southern and Eastern, and Shandong Airlines, other Chinese carriers have also shown interest in flying from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Kunming into India.

 

The move marks the end of the restrictions, which came into effect from early 2020, when direct flights between India and China where suspended from both sides due to the pandemic. But they continued to remain suspended because of the growing tensions between the two countries after the Galwan border dispute.

 

The game has now changed in 2025. IndiGo and Air India (now under the Tatas), which have ordered over 1,800 aircraft, including medium- and long haul planes, are flexing their wings and pushing aggressively in the international skies, say analysts.

 

For one, Indian carriers led by Air India and IndiGo are looking at building international hubs in Delhi and Mumbai, and access to the Chinese market could be key to this plan. And, with the mid-haul A321XLR now joining the fleet of IndiGo, the airline will be able to fly to more Chinese destinations of eight to ten hours, which is not possible with its A320neo that is being used for the flight from Kolkata.

 

Also, there is a large untapped market of passengers, who have continued to fly between India and China through third countries, consuming more time and forking out more. According to OAG data, in 2024 (when there was no flights between the two countries), as many as 572,000 passengers travelled indirectly, using hubs like Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangkok, and even Vietnam.

 

Not only that, even in the pre-pandemic 2019 peak, there were over 1.2 million passengers who travelled between the two countries on direct nonstop flights. If non-direct flights are added to it, the number hits 1.9 million. But with thaw in the relationship between the two countries, and possible easing of visas, the overall shift to direct flights could see a bigger jump in the number of travellers.

 

Indian carriers have identified at least four key Chinese cities for direct flights — Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu.

 

For Chinese airlines too, flying to India is an attractive proposition, especially at a time when China-US travel has hit a new low, with the number of flights falling by over 75 per cent.

 

• In January 2019, Chinese carriers controlled 85-90 per cent of the India-China seating capacity, with Air India being the only serious player.
• IndiGo entered the fray in September 2019, and was able to quickly garner market share, but Covid intervened in early 2020, and soon flights between India and China where suspended.
• Armed with huge aircraft order, Air India and IndiGo will soon start operations to China.
• China to be a key part of a strategy to make Delhi and Mumbai global hubs.