India narrows China's lead in 5G phone conversion over past 12 months

India is closing the gap with China in the rapid shift of smartphone shipments from 4G to 5G over the past 12 months.

 

The share of 5G phones in India’s total smartphone shipments has gone up sharply, rising from 57 per cent in the second quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24) to 83.4 per cent in Q2 of 2024-25 (FY25). In the same period, China saw its 5G phone shipments increase from 89.5 per cent to 95.6 per cent of the total shipments. However, China's quarter-on-quarter journey during this period has not shown a consistent upside. In contrast to India, China’s share of 5G phones fell from 93.2 per cent in the third quarter of FY24 to 89.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY24.

 

In India, shipments of 5G phones accounted for 77 per cent of all smartphone shipments in first quarter (Q1) of FY25, which means the share increased by 7 percentage points in the following quarter. 

 

In Q2FY25, 5G smartphone shipments reached 38.4 million — the highest ever in a single quarter — marking a sharp increase of 43 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 53 per cent year-on-year.

 

As a result, CLSA estimates that there are already 250 million 5G smartphones in the country. Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel have positioned themselves well to capture this expanding customer base and improve their average revenue per user. Consequently, India’s smartphone base, which stood at 600 million in FY24, is projected to grow to 695 million in FY25 and reach 915 million by 2026-27, covering the bulk of the market. 

 

Meanwhile, the number of 2G subscribers is expected to decline even further. In contrast, sales of lower-end smartphones and 4G feature phones have slumped. CLSA estimates that shipments of JioBharat 4G phones fell to 3.3 million in Q2FY25, compared to a peak shipment of 21 million. 4G shipments have also declined — from 7.9 million in Q1FY25 to 7.7 million in Q2FY25. In comparison, 4G shipments in Q2FY24 were at 18.7 million.