Realty firms may post pre-sales growth in Q1FY26 despite demand moderation

Top listed real estate companies like DLF, Prestige, Lodha, and Oberoi are likely to post a growth in pre-sales on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis for the first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26) despite an overall demand moderation across top Indian cities. The developers’ growth in Q1 would be supported by new launches in the luxury category, even as they missed out meeting their FY25 guidance due to delay in approvals, said analysts. 

“Some of the missed product launches (in FY25) have now been launched in Q1FY26. Our checks suggest a strong response to those launches, and hence our expectation of strong pre-sales for Q1FY26,” analysts at HSBC noted. 

Meanwhile, overall housing sales across the top seven Indian cities declined by 20 per cent Y-o-Y due to inexorably rising property prices and geopolitical tensions, including Operation Sindoor and the Iran-Israel war, according to Anarock. 

However, the developers’ growth in Q1FY26 would be aided by new launches in the luxury category, with leading listed realtors clocking record sales for individual launches. This shift is leading to higher average ticket sizes and revenue per square foot, according to Anuj Puri, chairperson, the Anarock group.

 

India Ratings & Research Director Mahaveer Jain said, “We expect the collections to remain strong on account of execution and strong pre-sales during the last three years. Owing to accounting issues, we track collections and cash flow from operations. We expect these two financial items to grow in the early double digit.”

 

In Q1FY26, DLF, India’s top real estate developer, launched an ultra-luxury project, Privana North, where the company sold ₹11,000 crore worth of inventory within a week of launch (almost half of its FY26 pre-sales guidance). Similar to Q4FY25, analysts at Nomura estimate the company to have some sustenance sales from the Dahlias at about ₹1,000 crore. 

 

Mumbai-based Lodha has reported a 10 per cent growth in its pre-sales. The company’s pre-sales stood at ₹4,450 crore against the pre-sales of ₹4,030 crore in Q1FY25. The growth was offset by geopolitical tensions observed during the quarter.

 

Lodha’s Mumbai peer Oberoi Realty launched Elysian Tower D in Goregaon, which registered bookings of ₹970 crore, and could have added ₹300 crore from sustenance sales, according to Nomura analysts.

 

Bengaluru-based Prestige announced pre-sales of ₹3,000 crore within a week of launching its project in Indirapuram and an instant sellout of its Gardenia Estate project in Devanhalli.

 

During the quarter, Godrej Properties announced bookings of over ₹2,000 crore from its recently launched MSR City project in Bengaluru.

 

According to Puri, the premium product mix is likely to drive higher Ebitda margins, as pricing power remains with developers in supply-constrained luxury locations. Ebitda stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation.

 

Meanwhile, Rajashree Murkute, senior director at Care Ratings, stated that the number of quarters required to sell the inventory of the majority of the leading players in the top six cities has come down less than four —15 months to be precise. “Luxury absorption has been good, particularly in cities like Bengaluru, Mumbai, NCR, and in some micro markets of Pune. Launch-wise, the quarter was not very different from what it was last year,” she added.

 

However, on a Y-o-Y basis, the sales growth is estimated to moderate due to comparatively lower launches. Most of the leading developers, including DLF, Lodha Developers (erstwhile Macrotech Developers), Prestige Estates Projects, Godrej Properties, Sobha, etc., missed out on their FY25 launch guidance due to a delay in approvals.

 

Anupama Reddy, vice president and co-group head, Icra, also expressed the same view. Reddy said in Q1FY26, sales are expected to moderate due to lower launches. The area sold in the top seven cities in the first two months (2MFY26) has seen a decline of 11.8 per cent due to lower launches by 17.2 per cent.

 

But analysts emphasised that the growth would be on a high base. “The last two years have seen phenomenal growth. Now, the base correction is likely. The pace of growth may not be as pronounced as we have seen in the last one-two years,” said Murkute.

Pre-sale bonanza