USDA estimates a 26% spike in India's Sugar output on monsoon effect

Robust gains are expected in India's Sugar output. The United States Department of Agriculture or USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects India's sugar production to reach 35 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for the marketing year (MY) 2025/26, reflecting a 26% spike from the revised estimate of the current year. This production forecast is attributed to the southwest monsoon received in key sugarcane-producing states during MY 2024/25, alongside an expected recovery in planted area for MY 2025/26.

The sugar production estimate for the ongoing 2024/25 season has been revised down to 28 MMT (raw value) due to the adverse impacts of El Niño and limited groundwater resources for irrigation. Sugar consumption for the upcoming year is anticipated to reach 31 MMT, which is 5 percent higher than the estimate for MY 2024/25, driven by sustained growth from the food service sector. Post expects total raw and refined sugar exports and ending stocks to increase in the outyear based on the projected increase in production.

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