Gold seen hitting $3,600 by year-end on global uncertainty: Ventura

Gold prices could climb to $3,600 per ounce in the global markets by the end of December, driven by global economic headwinds, geopolitical risks and robust investment demand, according to the Ventura Securities.

In its latest outlook, Ventura Securities said it expects Comex gold futures to touch $3,600 per ounce by year-end, after hitting an all-time high of $3,534.10 on August 7.

On the domestic front, the most-traded October gold futures scaled a record high of Rs 1,02,250 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange on August 8.

"Gold retains upside potential with pronounced volatility, supported by weaker US growth, sustained pressure on the US dollar index, trade frictions and heightened geopolitical risks," the stock broking firm said.

Global demand trends continue to underpin the rally. Gold demand in the second quarter of 2025 rose 3 per cent year-on-year to 1,249 tonnes, valued at $132 billion, reflecting a 45 per cent surge in value terms.

Investment inflows through exchange traded funds (ETFs) have been particularly strong, with global gold ETF holdings up 16 per cent at 3,616 tonnes as of June 30.

Their assets under management jumped 64 per cent year-on-year to $383 billion, the brokerage firm said.

Meanwhile, India mirrored this global trend. Domestic gold ETFs recorded a 42 per cent rise in holdings to 66.68 tonnes in the year to June 30, while AUM nearly doubled to Rs 64,777 crore.

Investor accounts in gold ETFs rose 41 per cent to 76.54 lakh, registering a 317 per cent increase over the past four years, it added.

Ventura noted that investor behaviour is shifting, with younger generations favouring digital avenues of gold investment such as ETFs, fractional ownership and digital gold platforms.

Physical jewellery demand remains resilient, but hybrid strategies combining offline and online channels are gaining traction.

"Over the past 20 years, gold has delivered positive annual returns in 14 calendar years, reinforcing its status as a proven store of value and a hedge against inflation.

"Recent performance underscores its resilience, with average annual returns of 23 per cent over the last three years compared to 11 per cent for the Nifty 50 index," the brokerage firm said.

In its outlook, Ventura further said the central banks also remain steady buyers of gold. With the Reserve Bank of India discontinuing fresh issuances of Sovereign Gold Bonds from February 2024, analysts expect ETFs and other digital instruments to take a larger share of investment demand.

According to NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities, Ventura, "With inflationary pressures, a softening US dollar, and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, we see sustained upside potential in gold prices through the remainder of 2025.

"...indicates Comex gold could test the USD 3,600 mark by year-end, supported by strong ETF inflows, steady central bank buying, and robust retail participation in India's gold investment market," Ramaswamy added.