The
cryptocurrency market is navigating a pivotal moment as
Bitcoin trades around $68,300, following another rejection at the $70,000 zone. Altcoins mirrored the risk-off tone, with Ethereum slipping to about $1,965, Solana down 2.4 per cent, and XRP falling over 3.3 per cent.
The short-term market structure, analysts said, appears fragile, with declining ETF inflows since mid-January reinforcing a cautious sentiment.
“Risk appetite remains selective, and macro cross-currents are keeping traders defensive,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus. In derivatives markets, he added, “The market continues to behave as if it is ‘de-leveraging first, asking questions later.’ Rallies have struggled to hold, and dips are being bought only selectively near obvious levels.”
Macro forces remain key drivers
The latest
US inflation data for January came in softer than expected, with headline CPI up 0.2 per cent month-on-month and 2.4 per cent year-on-year — keeping the possibility of rate cuts alive, even as timing remains uncertain. A Reuters poll of economists suggests the Federal Reserve may hold rates through May, with a potential cut in June, reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” backdrop, Subburaj noted.
“The market is effectively asking whether disinflation can continue without a growth wobble,” he said. “Until that becomes clear, crypto is likely to trade like a high-beta macro asset.”
ETF flows, meanwhile, have been mixed and largely inconclusive. On February 12, net outflows totaled a sharp -$410.2 million, while February 13 saw a modest $15.1 million inflow into US spot
Bitcoin ETFs — signaling tentative stabilization, but no meaningful institutional buying surge.
Bitcoin’s technical landscape
Bitcoin briefly touched $70,939 but failed to hold, and was last trading around $68,302, down 2.87 per cent, with a 24-hour volume of $37.67 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. Over the same period, BTC swung between $68,052.55 and $70,939.29.
The asset remains over 45 per cent below its all-time high of $126,198 on October 7, 2025, with a total market capitalization of $1.36 trillion, the largest among cryptocurrencies.
From a technical standpoint, Subburaj identified $68,000 as key near-term support, with supply continuing to weigh in around $70,000–$71,000. “As long as BTC holds above this base, the broader structure remains one of consolidation rather than breakdown,” he said, advising that prudent investors consider staggered accumulation around support and the use of risk-managed tools such as SIPs or hedged futures positions.
Riya Sehgal, research analyst at Delta Exchange, offered a slightly more optimistic near-term scenario. If Bitcoin holds above $68,000 and reclaims the $69,500–$70,000 zone, she expects a relief rally toward $72,000–$73,000 could unfold, signaling renewed bullish momentum.
“Conversely, a decisive break below $67,800 may extend the correction toward $66,000 or even $63,500,” she said.
Ethereum fails to hold $2,000
Ethereum (ETH) has been trading in a similar pattern of consolidation around $1,950. The token managed to reclaim the $2,100 mark, but could not sustain gains amid heavier selling pressure. At last check, ETH was quoted at $1,954.90, down 6.48 per cent, with a 24-hour volume of $26.15 billion. Its trading range over the period was $1,929–$2,100, according to CoinMarketCap.
Sehgal noted that a sustained move above $2,050 could open the upside toward $2,200–$2,250, while a breakdown below $1,900 risks a slide to $1,840 or lower.
Market outlook
Overall, the broader crypto market, analysts said, remains range-bound, with traders watching key inflection points closely. A strong recovery in Bitcoin above $70,000, they believe, could help restore broader market confidence, while failure to hold current supports may trigger another wave of risk-off sentiment across digital assets.
 "Crypto traders cautious as macro data reinforces 'higher for longer' stance")
