Gold Strategy: Buy dips; resistance at Rs 75,400, support at Rs 73,000

Gold – Sharply higher on rate cut bets

Performance
 

Spot gold surged to a fresh record high of $2465 on July 16 as traders continued to pile into the metal on Fed rate cut bets.

Spot gold was at $2462 at the time of the MCX closing. The MCX August Gold was at Rs 74,255, up around 1.10 per cent, at the time of the MCX closing.

The US Yields and Dollar
 

The US Dollar Index at 104.31 was up nearly 0.10 per cent at the time of the MCX closing as the two-year US yields were steady at 4.45 per cent. However, the ten-year US yields at 4.1711 per cent were down nearly 1.30 per cent.

Data and event round up

The US data released Friday showed that the retail sales advance (June) was steady on m-o-m basis (forecast -0.30 per cent), retail sales ex auto was up 0.40 per cent m-o-m (forecast 0.10 per cent), whereas retail sales control group was noted at 0.90 per cent Vs the forecast of 0.20 per cent.

Retail sales data topping the forecasts unexpectedly was bearish for the yellow metal; however, it followed 10-year US bonds higher as the 10-year yields dipped by over 1 per cent. The import price Index (June) was hotter than expected, though the export price index lagged the forecast. Germany's ZEW survey expectations (July) data was slightly better than expected. The NAHB Housing Market Index (July) came in at 43 versus the forecast of 42.

The Fed Chair Powell, speaking at the Economic Club of Washington on July 15, said that the trend of inflation in the last three months has been encouraging, but he refused to drop any hints about rate cut timings as he said that the Fed will move on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Nonetheless, Market participants continue to assign a 93 per cent probability for a September rate cut. 

Gold-backed currency in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe's new Central Banker Mushayavanhu is reportedly building up the nation's gold reserves to help support the ZWG currency (short form of Zimbabwe gold). In his first hundred days in office, he is said to have accumulated $370 million worth of gold reserves.

ETF

Total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 81.673 as of July 15 as the ETF volume grew for the tenth day, reaching the highest level since April 12.

Upcoming data

Today's major US data releases include housing starts (June) and industrial production (June). Apart from these data, traders will look forward to the US beige book and Fedspeak as well.

Outlook

Gold is expected to test the $2500 resistance on rate cut bets, though Tuesday's rally looks somewhat overdone as it came mainly on a decline in yields rather than the US data.

Traders are expected to continue to buy into dips, Support is at $2450 (Rs 73,900) /$2420 (Rs 73,000). Resistance is at $2475 (Rs 74,600) /$2500 (Rs 75,400).

(Praveen Singh is an associate vice president of fundamental currencies and commodities at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas. Views expressed are his own.)