Hero MotoCorp Q4 Preview: Net profit may rise up to Rs 1,124 crore YoY

Hero MotoCorp Q4 preview: Two-wheelers manufacturer Hero MotoCorp is likely to announce its Q4FY25 earnings, on Tuesday, May 12, 2025, with analysts projecting a mixed performance.  

 

While the Hero MotoCorp's two-wheeler (2W) volume growth has remained subdued, especially in the domestic market, average selling prices (ASPs) are expected to improve due to an enhanced product mix led by 125cc models, premium offerings, and export traction, analysts said.

 

Brokerages are forecasting marginal revenue growth, supported by better realisations rather than unit sales. Operating margins are anticipated to remain stable or see minor improvements, driven by cost control efforts and reduced promotional spend. 

 

However, some analysts flag rising marketing expenses due to events like the Auto Expo and recent product launches, which could weigh on margins.

 

Consensus estimates for Q4FY25 place revenue between ₹9,674 crore and ₹9,722 crore, marking a 1.6–2.1 per cent Y-o-Y increase. The Net profit (PAT) is projected to rise 3.2–10.6 per cent Y-o-Y, ranging from ₹1,048 crore to ₹1,124 crore.

 

Top things to track in Hero MotoCorp’s Q4 results 2025

 

Key investor focus will remain on Hero MotoCorp’s demand outlook, the timeline of upcoming product launches, and how effectively the company navigates the transition towards premiumisation in a tepid 2W market.

 

Hero MotoCorp share price

 

On the bourses, Hero MotoCorp shares were in demand, with the scrip rising up to 2.70 per cent to hit an intraday high of Rs 3958.40 per share. 

 

However, at 12:15 PM, Hero MotoCorp shares were off day’s high, and were trading 2.18 per cent higher at 3,938.35 per share. In comparison, BSE Sensex was trading 2.86 per cent higher at 81,729.19 level.  ALSO READ | Tata Motors Q4 Preview: Here's what to expect from auto giant in March quarter

Given this, here’s what top brokerage said ahead of Hero MotoCorp’s Q4 results:

 

Motilal Oswal

 

Motilal Oswal expects volume growth to remain subdued as two-wheeler demand lagged expectations, leading to a 1 per cent year-on-year decline. However, average selling prices (ASPs) are likely to improve by around 3 per cent Y-o-Y, supported by a better product mix, particularly in the 125cc segment. This is expected to drive a revenue growth of 2 per cent Y-o-Y. 

 

Despite volumes being down 5.6 per cent on a sequential basis, the brokerage anticipates Ebitda margins to remain largely stable quarter-on-quarter, aided by a decline in promotional expenses. 

 

Overall, analysts project revenue at Rs 9,674.3 crore, up 1.6 per cent Y-o-Y; Ebitda at Rs 1,385.7 crore; Ebitda margin at 14.3 per cent; and PAT at Rs 1,048.4 crore, marking a 3.2 per cent Y-o-Y growth.

 

Axis Securities

 

Analysts at Axis Securities forecasts a revenue increase of approximately 2 per cent Y-o-Y, driven by higher ASPs on account of price hikes during the year, a continuing trend of premiumisation, and stronger export volumes. 

 

These positives, analysts believe, are expected to be partially offset by declining domestic sales. The brokerage also expects Ebitda margins to expand by 27 basis points Y-o-Y and 9 basis points Q-o-Q, owing to a richer product mix and ongoing cost control initiatives. Their estimates peg revenue at Rs 9,722 crore, up 2.1 per cent Y-o-Y; Ebitda at Rs 1,414 crore, up 4.1 per cent Y-o-Y; Ebitda margin at 14.5 per cent; and PAT at Rs 1,124 crore, reflecting a Y-o-Y increase of 10.6 per cent.

 

Nuvama

 

Nuvama anticipates Hero MotoCorp’s revenue to grow Y-o-Y, primarily on the back of higher realisations. However, it expects Ebitda margins to contract due to increased marketing spends linked to the Auto Expo and new product launches. The brokerage highlights that investor attention will be on demand outlook and timelines for future launches. Nuvama estimates revenue at Rs 9,720.7 crore, up 2 per cent Y-o-Y; Ebitda to remain flat at Rs 1,363.4 crore; and PAT at Rs 1,108.9 crore, registering a 9 per cent Y-o-Y growth.