ICICI Bank Q2 results preview: Analysts eye muted profit growth, weak NIM

ICICI Bank is likely to report muted Q2FY26 earnings on October 18, with net profit up 4-5% YoY and muted NIMs. Analysts expect steady loan growth, controlled credit costs, and high provisions

ICICI Bank Q2 results preview: Private lender ICICI Bank may report a muted set of earnings for the September quarter of the current financial year (Q2FY26), primarily on account of a large base last year and absence of higher ‘other income’ seen in the previous quarter (Q1FY26).

 

At the headline level, consensus estimate pegs ICICI Bank’s net profit growth at around 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). The net interest income (NII), too, is seen rising around 6-7 per cent over Q2FY25. 

 

In the September quarter of the previous year, ICICI Bank had reported PAT of ₹11,745.9 crore and NII of ₹20,048 crore. The bank’s net interest margin (NIM) stood at 4.3 per cent.

 

Sequentially, most analysts expect ICICI Bank’s earnings to decline in the range of 4-8 per cent. The lender’s net profit in Q1FY26 was ₹12,768.2 crore, NII was ₹21,634.5 crore, and NIM was 4.3 per cent. 

ICICI Bank Q2 results: Date and time update

According to the bank’s disclosures, a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank is scheduled to be held on Saturday, October 18, 2025, to approve the financial results for the quarter and half-year ended on September 30, 2025.

 

ICICI Bank may declare its results between 3-4 PM on October 18.

 

Further, the Bank will host a conference call with analysts and investors at 5:00 PM IST on October 18, 2025 to discuss the financial results of the Bank for Q2 and H1FY26.   ALSO READ | HDFC Bank Q2FY26: What should investors expect from results?

 

ICICI Bank Q2 results expectations

Nomura

Nomura estimates ICICI Bank’s NII to rise 7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to ₹21,520 crore, backed by 11 per cent growth in loans and 10 per cent in deposits.

 

Sequentially, this would be a 1 per cent decline in the net interest income, capped by 4 per cent and 2 per cent Q-o-Q growth in credit and deposits, estimated at ₹14,13,300 crore and ₹16,48,700 crore, respectively.

 

Further, Nomura estimates ICICI Bank’s pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) to grow 8 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹18,130 crore from ₹16,720 crore. Over the June quarter of FY26, it would be a dip of 3 per cent from ₹18,750 crore.

 

“Reported NIMs may decline 14 basis points (bps) Q-o-Q to 4.2 per cent as Q1FY26 had a 7-bps benefit on account of interest on tax refund. Adjusted for that, however, NIM may decline by 7 bps,” Nomura said.

The brokerage estimates net profit at ₹12,300 crore, up 5 per cent Y-o-Y.

 

“Credit costs are expected to remain controlled at 0.5 per cent. Outlook on margins and loan/deposit growth, meanwhile, will be the key monitorable,” it said.

Axis Securities

Taking a slightly cautious stance, analysts at Axis Securities expect ICICI Bank’s Q2FY26 net profit to dip 0.7 per cent Y-o-Y and as much as 8.6 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹11,669 crore.

 

This, it said, would be on the back of a 39 per cent Y-o-Y surge in provisions (down 6 per cent Q-o-Q), and a muted rise of 5 per cent Y-o-Y in non-interest income (down 11 per cent Q-o-Q).

 

Provisions are seen at ₹1,711 crore for the quarter, compared to ₹1,233 crore last year and ₹1,815 crore created in Q1FY26. Similarly, non-interest income is pegged at ₹7,553 crore versus ₹7,177 crore in Q2FY25 and ₹8,505 crore in Q1FY26. 

 

On the business front, the brokerage expects loan growth to remain “fairly healthy”, aiding a steady loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR).

 

It, however, expects higher operating expenditure (opex) to dent PPOP growth. The operating profit is estimated to rise 3 per cent Y-o-Y, but fall 8 per cent Q-o-Q, to ₹17,208 crore. 

 

“We expect credit costs to remain under control with no major challenges on the asset quality front. NIM outlook, and comments on loan and deposit growth and unsecured loan book will be key monitorables,” it said.

Emkay Global Financial Services

Analysts at Emkay Global expect ICICI Bank to post a strong loan growth with a steady deposit growth.

 

It estimates NII at ₹21,492.6 crore, PPOP at ₹18,186.4 crore, and net profit at ₹12,749.2 crore.

 

It expects credit cost to remain controlled at 0.5 per cent in Q2FY26 and NIM to come at 4.2 per cent.

PL Capital

This brokerage forecasts continuation in the bank’s loan growth momentum with a 10-per cent Y-o-Y and 3 per cent Q-o-Q increase in credit book to ₹14,05,100 crore.

 

It expects NII growth of 7 per cent Y-o-Y/1 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹21,459 crore with NIM at 4.33 per cent. 

 

It, too, estimates an increase in provisions on a yearly basis to ₹1,633.1 crore, capping net profit growth at just 1.6 per cent Y-o-Y at ₹11,934 crore. 

 

Gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio is seen at 1.66 per cent versus 1.67 per cent Q-o-Q, and credit costs at 0.46 per cent vs 0.53 per cent Q-o-Q.