 "ICICI Bank Q2 results preview: Analysts peg net profit growth at 7% YoY")
ICICI Bank Q2 results preview: ICICI Bank is expected to report mid-single digit growth in net profit in the second quarter of the current financial year (Q2 FY25), weighed by weak interest income and loan growth.
Brokerages tracked by Business Standard, on average, see a 7-per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) rise in Q2 PAT as against a profit of Rs 10,261 crore reported in Q2 FY24. Sequentially, ICICI Bank reported a profit of Rs 11,059.1 crore in Q1 FY25.
Net interest income (NII), meanwhile, may increase up to 10 per cent Y-o-Y during the quarter under review.
ICICI Bank Q2 results date
ICICI Bank is scheduled to report its July-September quarter (Q2) results for financial year 2024-25 (FY25) and the first half of the financial 2024-25, ending on September 30, 2024 (H1 FY25), on Saturday, October 26, 2024.
ICICI Bank Q2 results 2024 expectations: Brokerages' preview
Nomura
Nomura sees a tepid 9-per cent Y-o-Y rise in NII at Rs 20,000 crore during the quarter, compared with Rs 18,310 crore seen in Q2 FY24. Sequentially, NII may rise 2 per cent from Rs 19,550 crore reported in Q1 FY25.
Net interest margin (NIM), meanwhile, is seen falling 23 basis points Y-o-Y and 6 bps Q-o-Q to 4.3 per cent.
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This comes in the backdrop of a loan and deposit growth of 15 per cent Y-o-Y and 4 per cent Q-o-Q each to Rs 12.77 trillion and Rs 14.83 trillion, respectively.
Credit cost, too, is seen inching up 27 bps Y-o-Y and 3 bps Q-o-Q to 0.5 per cent.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services
In-line with Nomura's estimates, MOFSL expects ICICI Bank's Q2 NII to stand at Rs 19,930 crore, registering a rise of 8.9 per cent on year.
Including 'Other Income' of Rs 6,690 crore, Total Income for Q2 FY25 could come in at Rs 26,620 crore.
Meanwhile, Operating profit for the September quarter, as per MOFSL, may rise 11 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 15,830 crore as against Rs 14,230 crore seen in Q2 FY24. In the June quarter of the current financial year, PPOP was Rs 16,020 crore.
Amid steady provisions and tax outgo, net profit is seen at Rs 10,910 crore, up 6.3 per cent Y-o-Y from Rs 10,260 crore. In Q1 FY25, PAT was Rs 11,060 crore.
The brokerage expects the pace of loan and deposit growth to decline in Q2 FY25 with around 14.6 per cent Y-o-Y growth projected for each.
Loan book is seen at Rs 12.72 trillion and Deposit book is seen at Rs 14.83 trillion.
Asset quality, Motilal Oswal said, may worsen with gross non-performing asset ratio seen at 2.3 per cent vs 2.2 per cent Q-o-Q and NNPA at 0.5 per cent vs 0.4 per cent Q-o-Q.
Prabhudas Lilladher
This brokerage, too, expects PAT to rise 5 per cent Y-o-Y, but drop 2.5 per cent Q-o-Q, to Rs 10,780.1 crore during the quarter as it expects provisions to surge 107 per cent Y-o-Y (down 10 per cent Q-o-Q) to Rs 1,204.4 crore.
Operationally, NII is anticipated to rise 10.3 per cent Y-o-Y/3.3 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 20,194.3 crore, while PPOP is projected to increase 9.5 per cent Y-o-Y, but down 2.8 per cent Q-o-Q, to Rs 15,577.8 crore.
"Loan growth momentum will continue and is expected to come in at 4.0 per cent. Margin, however, may fall by 4bps due to rise in cost of funds while yields may remain steady at same levels. Gross NPAs are likely to improve by 1bps Q-o-Q, aided by reduction in credit costs by 6bps Q-o-Q," it said.
Sharekhan
Sharekhan said that ICICI Bank's Q2 FY25 Loans are likely to grow by 14 per cent Y-o-Y, aided by broad based growth in all segments. It, too, expects NIMs to decline marginally Q-o-Q.
In absolute terms, NII is seen at Rs 19,957 crore, PPOP at Rs 15,996 crore, and net profit at Rs 1,097.8 crore.
The brokerage said key monitorables during ICICI Bank's Q2 results would be deposit growth and margins outlook.