 "New Year Picks 2026: SBI, Astral, Hindalco among top bets by Axis Sec")
New Year picks 2026: As we enter 2026, the Indian equity market stands at a critical inflection point — transitioning from a phase dominated by domestic liquidity to one where earnings delivery, policy alignment, and macro stability will be the primary drivers of returns, according to Axis Securities.
“We are building in a Nifty base-case target of 28,100 for December 2026, valuing the index at 20 times December 2027 earnings,” Axis Securities said.
In 2025, Indian equities exhibited divergent performance, with the Nifty50 and Sensex delivering returns of 10.7 per cent and 9.45 per cent, respectively, to investors. Broader markets lagged, as the Nifty MidCap 100 rose 6.3 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap 100 fell 6 per cent. The past year tested investor resilience through sharp market rotations, currency volatility, global trade uncertainty, and intermittent foreign capital outflows. Yet, India’s domestic economic fundamentals have remained notably resilient, believes Axis Securities. ALSO READ | Sensex can hit 100,000 in 2026 if earnings pickup: Chris Wood
“We believe a cyclical recovery is unfolding in the Indian equity market as the corporate earnings cycle turns upward and economic growth broadens,” the brokerage said.
Analysts reckon that with momentum gradually strengthening across financials, consumption, and capital-intensive sectors, India remains one of the few large markets where cyclical recovery is aligned with structural growth drivers, providing a favourable backdrop for equities over the medium to long term.
While global growth remains uneven and geopolitics continue to influence capital flows, India enters 2026 with distinct structural strengths: a stable political environment, ongoing financialisation of savings, improving fiscal discipline, and a consumption-led growth model that is relatively insulated from external shocks, the brokerage noted.
Global factors such as the US Federal Reserve’s rate path and geopolitical developments will remain important, but Axis Securities expects domestic demand recovery and the favourable resolution of key trade negotiations to be the primary drivers of market performance in the year ahead. ALSO READ | Nifty50 to hit 29,300 by end-2026? Nomura lists top 20 stock picks
New Year picks 2026 by Axis Securities
Given that, while near-term volatility, particularly around currency movements and foreign flows, remains a reality, structural demand drivers and improving earnings visibility create a constructive backdrop for equity investing. The 2026 investment landscape is expected to reward quality, earnings visibility, and focused sectoral plays aligned with key macro themes.
The favourable domestic macro drivers, combined with policy support and the anticipated resolution of US tariff issues, are poised to create a compelling investment case, according to the brokerage. ALSO READ | Stocks to buy for 2026: These 5 banks can rally up to 30%, says expert
In this backdrop, Axis Securities has picked five themes for the year 2026:
- Financials – beneficiaries of credit expansion and the interest-rate cycle
- Consumption plays – companies benefiting from domestic demand
- Selective cyclicals – to capture the commodity upcycle
- Healthcare – as a defensive allocation
- Multi-cap exposure – aligning across large, mid and small-caps
It suggests a “buy on dips” strategy in the stocks listed below, with an investment horizon of over 12 months:
| Stock | Rating | Target (₹) |
| SBI | Buy | 1,135 |
| Varun Beverages | Buy | 550 |
| Hindalco Industries | Buy | 950 |
| Nippon Life India Asset Management | Buy | 1,000 |
| Dalmia Bharat | Buy | 2,320 |
| Astral | Buy | 1,625 |
| Affle 3i | Buy | 2,000 |
| Healthcare Global Enterprises | Buy | 850 |
| Mold-Tek Packaging | Buy | 670 |
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by the brokerage in this article are their own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.