Nifty up 2,300 points from June 4 low; when will it hit the 25,000-mark?

So far in June 2024, the NSE benchmark has gained more than 1,000 points and hit as many as 30 new highs in less than six months in the calendar year 2024; Here's a chart check on the Nifty 50 index.

The NSE Nifty 50 index has witnessed a frenzied run of nearly 2,300 points in the last two weeks (just 10 trading sessions). The NSE benchmark index has gained 2,277 points or 10.7 per cent its low of 21,281 hit amid the panic sell-off on June 04, 2024 - the day of Lok Sabha election 2024 results.

Thanks to the sharp rally, so far in June 2024, the Nifty 50 index has gained more than 1,000 points or 4.6 per cent. The Nifty had closed at 22,531 on May 31, and has so far hit an all-time high of 23,579 in this month.

One of the key drivers for the current month's rally is re-election of Narendra Modi-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections. Post elections, analysts are hopeful that the re-elected government will continue to push reforms and remain committed on its path to maintain fiscal prudence.

"The Indian market touched record highs on Tuesday, and is gradually expanding the gains achieved following the national election. It is responding positively to the upcoming budget, which is anticipated to strike a balance between growth and populism.” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

So far this calendar year, the Nifty has surged 8.5 per cent. The Nifty has registered 30 new highs so far in 2024 as against 23 record highs in 2023 and mere 4 in the year 2022. In contrast, the Nifty had zoomed 20 per cent in the calendar year 2023 and 4.3 per cent in the preceding year.

Among individual stocks, 26 out of the Nifty 50 stocks have outperformed the NSE benchmark index so far this month. Shriram Finance and Mahindra & Mahindra are the top movers, up 20 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively. Hero MotoCorp, Wipro, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra and Titan were also up over 10 per cent each.

On the other hand, Adani Enterprises, Hindalco and Coal India were among the losers, down up to 3 per cent.

Experts view

Despite a winning streak for the fifth consecutive session on Tuesday, the appearance of small body candles on the daily chart is frustrating for traders, particularly intraday traders focused on the benchmark index, said analysts. 

Although the narrow intraday range suggests a potential momentum move nearby, they suggest traders should wait for a trigger before becoming aggressive with index-specific trades.

"With a bullish undertone, traders should focus on trades outside the index, as the real action lies there. For the Nifty, immediate support is around the bullish gap near 23,500 levels, with key support at 23,350. In the uncharted territory, 23,650 to 23,700 appears to be immediate resistance," suggests Sameet Chavan, head research for technical and derivatives at Angel One.

Shrikant Chouhan, head equity research at Kotak Securities, too, believes that the markets are in a long-term uptrend and should gain ground provided domestic and global cues remain supportive. 23,500 for the Nifty and 77,000 levels, he said, would be the key support level for trend-following traders.

"As long as the market is trading above the same, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue. On the higher side, the market could move towards 23,600-23,750/77,300-77,800. On the other hand, below 23,500/77,000 the sentiment may change and the index may slip to 23,300 or 23,200 levels," he said.

Key levels to track
 

Nifty

Key Supports: 23,430; 23,300

Resistance: 23,600; 23,630

The NSE Nifty 50 index has hit a new high in the last four straight trading sessions. Similarly, on the weekly scale the Nifty has been making new highs since mid-May. The weekly chart suggests that the bias is likely to remain favourable as long as the Nifty holds above 23,430 levels. Further, the daily chart suggests presence of multiple supports in the 23,400 - 23,300 range. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

On the upside, the daily charts indicate that the Nifty 50 index is likely to face resistance around its super trend at 23,600 levels. Breakout and sustained trade above the same shall unfold the next leg of the rally.

Similarly, the yearly Fibonacci chart had indicated a likely trading range of 18,650 - 24,800 for the Nifty 50 for 2024. The index is now within striking distance of its R1 (Resistance) which stands at 23,630 levels. Break of the same, could indicate that the index may extend its rally towards the 24,800 - 25,000 mark; with interim hurdle seen at 24,200 levels.