Weak demand trends likely to hit power sector in the near term outlook

Muted power demand growth in FY26 may weigh on thermal players, though renewable energy and transmission expansion continue to offer long-term opportunities

Trends in power demand correlate to economic activity, but unusually extended monsoon and unseasonal rains in financial year 2025-26 (FY26) have led to low growth. Power demand reached 425 billion units (BU) in the fourth quarter (Q4) of FY26, up 1.9 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and 8 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q). Day Ahead Market (DAM) prices at the Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) averaged ₹3.77/kilowatt-hour (kWh), down 13 per cent Y-o-Y but up 13 per cent Q-o-Q. Generators like NTPC and NLC added capacity, while JSW Energy improved plant load factors (PLFs). Ancillary companies like Inox Wind, Skipper, and Genus Power will report growth.

 

Thermal generators will be under pressure in Q4FY26, but renewable energy (RE) may outperform. NTPC and Adani Power may see lower generation growth or dips, while RE players ACME and Adani Green may witness strong double-digit Y-o-Y generation growth.

 

Peak demand grew by 2 per cent Y-o-Y to 245 gigawatt (Gw) in January. Energy consumption rose 2 per cent Y-o-Y to 425 BU. There was higher renewable generation and easy coal availability. Skymet’s forecasts indicate below-normal monsoon in calendar year 2026 (CY26), which may trigger cooling and agricultural demand. Power demand is likely to pick up in Q1FY27.

 

Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data indicated that NTPC reported a 4 per cent Y-o-Y decline in generation, with PLF moderating to 65 per cent, down 400 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y. Tata Power saw a very steep decline in generation due to disruptions at Mundra. CESC claimed 3 per cent Y-o-Y growth in generation. ACME Solar Holdings and NTPC Green Energy saw capacity expansion of 116 per cent and 72 per cent Y-o-Y, respectively. Adani Energy Solutions saw mid-single digit operating profit growth Y-o-Y but steep rise in finance costs.

 

NTPC’s consolidated group capacity (on March 31) was 87,977 megawatt (Mw), against 85,637 Mw at the end of Q3FY26. There was commercial capacity addition of 270 Mw via recently acquired Sinnar Thermal Power Ltd (STPL) through a consortium of Mahagenco and NTPC, with total STPL capacity of 1,350 Mw (5x270 Mw). Also 2,070 Mw of RE capacity was added. Revenue and operating profit is expected to grow Y-o-Y by high single digits in Q4FY26. But net profit is expected to decline significantly Y-o-Y due to a high base effect given very high other income in Q4FY25.

 

NLC’s capacity was 7,806 Mw at the end of FY26 versus 7,665 Mw at end-Q3FY26. Solar capacity of 141.2 Mw (out of a planned 300 Mw) was added in Bikaner. PLFs improved in Ghatampur Unit I and II (660 Mw each) and TPS-II (500 Mw lignite plant). Higher generation should push revenue up and operating profit may rise by over 80 per cent Y-o-Y. Net profit may also increase by over 50 per cent Y-o-Y.

 

In Q4FY26, JSW Energy did not add capacity. But revenue is expected to grow 40 per cent Y-o-Y with improvement in PLFs and better merchant realisations. The operating profit is expected to almost double Y-o-Y, but net profit may decline due to higher depreciation and finance costs.

 

Among ancillary companies, Inox Wind will probably miss FY26 revenue guidance of ₹5,000 crore, but Q4FY26 saw a pickup with revenue expected to grow by 30 per cent Y-o-Y to about ₹1,672 crore. Operating profit is expected to grow by 35 per cent Y-o-Y and net profit by low double digits. Skipper could see revenue beat the lower end of its guidance band but remain below the upper end of 25 per cent annual revenue growth, which would be about ₹5,500 crore. Skipper had an order book of ₹9,009 crore at the end of FY26. Operating profit and net profit should grow at well over 20 per cent. Genus Power’s revenue is expected to grow Y-o-Y at 42 per cent, which will meet FY26 guidance, with an order book of ₹27,217 crore at the end of FY26. Operating profit may grow Y-o-Y at 35 per cent, and net profit at over 40 per cent.

 

Among long-term trends, renewable capacity additions continue and CEA data indicates a big opportunity in transmission. Transmission line capacity is expected to increase to 571,403 cable kilometres (Ckm) by FY27 from 494,374 Ckm in FY25 and increase to 648,190 Ckm by FY32. Substation capacity is expected to grow to 18,81,780 MegaVolt-Ampere (MVA) by FY27 and to 24,11,885 MVA by FY32, which implies around ₹9.2 trillion transmission capex over 2023-2032. Power Grid, which may report an average Q4FY26, therefore, has a big long-term opportunity.