SBI Q3 results preview: Analysts see muted profit growth, higher provisions

SBI Q3FY26 results preview: Analysts expect muted profit growth amid higher provisions. Check earnings estimates, NII, NIM outlook, and results date.

SBI Q3 results preview: Government-owned State Bank of India (SBI) could see a muted earnings growth in the December quarter (Q3FY26) amid higher provisions and steady interest income, analysts said.

 

Besides, lower bad loan recoveries, and marginally higher slippages may also weigh on the lender’s results, they expect.

 

SBI Q3 results date, time:

According to the bank’s stock exchange filing, a meeting of the Central Board of SBI will be held on Saturday, February 7, 2026, to consider the financial results of the bank for the quarter ended December 31, 2025.

 

Further, an Analyst Meet will be conducted February 7 at 5.00 PM (IST) to discuss the Q3FY26 results.

 

SBI Q3 results expectations

 

Nomura

Japan-based brokerage, Nomura, expects SBI’s net profit to rise by 7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to ₹18,000 crore, from a profit of ₹16,891.4 crore seen in Q3FY25.

 

This would be aided by a 9-per cent Y-o-Y gain in net interest income (NII) and 23 per cent in pre-provision operating profit (PPoP). The brokerage pegs SBI’s Q3 NII at ₹45,230 crore, and PPOP at ₹28,870 crore.

 

A 427-per cent Y-o-Y surge in provisions, however, may cap topline growth, Nomura said. It expects provisions to come at ₹4,800 crore, compared to ₹910 crore last year.

 

Sequentially, net profit is estimated to fall by 11 per cent, NII to rise by 5 per cent, and PPOP to increase by 6 per cent.

 

“We expect SBI to post strong loan and deposit growth trends. NIM (net interest margin) is also expected to increase by around 5 basis points Q-o-Q, while credit cost may remain contained at 0.5 per cent,” Nomura said.

 

The brokerage pegs SBI’s loan book at ₹45.23 trillion, up 13 per cent Y-o-Y/4 per cent Q-o-Q, and deposit base at ₹57.42 trillion, up 10 per cent Y-o-Y/3 per cent Q-o-Q.

 

BNP Paribas

This global brokerage, too, expects SBI to post muted earnings growth. It sees SBI’s Q3 net profit at ₹17,677.5 crore (up 4.7 per cent Y-o-Y/down 12.3 per cent Q-o-Q), NII at ₹46,024.8 crore (up 11 per cent Y-o-Y/7 per cent Q-o-Q), and PPOP at ₹28,789 crore (up 22.2 per cent Y-o-Y/5.4 per cent Q-o-Q).

 

SBI had reported a NII of ₹41,445.5 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal, and ₹42,984.1 crore in Q2FY26.

 

Its operating profit, meanwhile, stood at ₹23,550.8 crore last year (Q3FY25) and ₹31,904.1 crore in Q2FY26.

 

The brokerage anticipates an increase in SBI’s Q3FY26 NIM to 3.1 per cent from 3 per cent Q-o-Q.

 

Systematix Research

Similar to Nomura’s expectations, analysts at Systematix Research said SBI could report a Q3 profit of ₹18,136 crore, logging a gain of 7.4 per cent Y-o-Y, but down about 10 per cent quarter-on-quarter.

 

PAT, it said, may slip sequentially due to a one-off gain of ₹4,593 crore on account of gain on sale of YES Bank's shares in Q2FY26.

 

NII, it said, may rise 7 per cent Y-o-Y/3 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹44,306.1 crore, while PPOP could improve by 22.6 per cent on year/5.7 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹28,862 crore.

 

“We expect sequential advances in growth to outpace industry growth. Besides, we expect the fall in yield on assets (YoA) to be completely offset by the fall in cost of deposits (CoD). Hence, NIMs are expected to remain stable Q-o-Q,” it said.

 

That apart, Systematix Research expects slippages to increase sequentially due to higher agri-related slippages.

 

Kotak Institutional Equities

Analysts at KIE have the most conservative estimates for State Bank of India’s Q3 results. This brokerage sees a decline of 8 per cent on an annual basis and 23 per cent on a quarterly basis in net profit. Kotak Institutional Equities pegs Q3 PAT at ₹15,522.1 crore.

 

Operationally, NII may rise barely 5.2 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹43,616.1 crore, while operating profit could increase by 6.6 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹25,104.5 crore.

 

“We expect operating profit growth to be capped by lower treasury income. We are building in 5-per cent Y-o-Y growth in NII despite a 12-per cent loan growth due to higher cost of funds and the pass-through of the recent rate cuts. Fee income trends were strong in the previous quarter but sustainability is the key,” analysts at Kotak Institutional Equity said.

 

Loan loss provisions are seen increasing by 374 per cent on year to ₹4,320 crore.

 

“We expect slippages at ~0.8 per cent of loans (normalization of slippages over time) but no fresh concerns are likely on unsecured loans for the bank. We are likely to see lower recovery and upgrades as well. Key discussion would NIM and loan growth for the quarter,” it said.