Street signs: Nifty's potential soars, a mixed bag in IPO GMPs, and more

Nifty’s potential soars: A 1,000-point rally ahead?

The benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty hit a record intraday high of 22,127 on Friday, surpassing its previous intraday peak from January 15. According to technical analysts at ICICIdirect, an over 1,000-point rally in the index might be on the horizon. The retail brokerage said in a note, “Our composite model, with equal weights on general election year price behaviour, bull market corrections, and bottom-up Nifty projection, strongly recommends buying the current decline for a target of 23,400 by June 2024.” It added, “In a general election year, Nifty tends to bottom out in February–March, followed by a minimum 

14 per cent rally towards the general election outcome in each of the seven instances over the past three decades.”
 

A mixed bag in IPO GMPs: Apeejay soars, Capital SFB lags
 

The grey market premiums (GMPs) for the four initial public offerings (IPOs) opening this week range between 0 per cent and 44 per cent. The highest demand is for Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels, and the lowest is for Capital Small Finance Bank (SFB), while Jana SFB and Rashi Peripherals stand at about 25 per cent each. These four issues, set to cumulatively raise over Rs 2,600 crore, follow the Interim Budget and the policy announcement by the US Federal Reserve, keeping some companies in wait-and-watch mode.
 

Nifty reshuffle alert: BPCL’s position at risk
 

While it is almost certain that UPL will be dislodged by Shriram Finance in the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index, the position of Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) could also be at risk. Brian Freitas of Periscope Analytics, an insight provider who publishes on Smartkarma, suggests a slim possibility that the state-run fuel retailer could get replaced by Bharat Electronics in the 

50-share benchmark index. Although Jio Financial Services, Zomato, and Avenue Supermarts (DMart) have higher free-float market capitalisations than Shriram Finance and Bharat Electronics, they are ineligible for index inclusion as they are not part of 

the derivatives segment. The review period for the March rebalance for Nifty indices concluded on January 31, and the announcement of changes will be made at the end of this month.