Bangladesh: A pyrrhic victory for Sheikh Hasina's Awami League

Awami League's victory, ensuring a fourth consecutive term for PM Sheikh Hasina, was expected. The one-sided victory is unlikely, however, to end the political deadlock or restore democracy credibly

The victory of the Bangladesh Awami League (AL), ensuring a fourth consecutive term for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, was expected. She has won a two-thirds majority. The largest Opposition party, the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), along with 14 smaller parties, boycotted the election.

However, the one-sided victory is unlikely to end the political deadlock or restore democracy credibly. 

Questions are already being raised about the Election Commissioner's 40 per cent polling figure at the close of polls at 4 PM on Sunday. The figure was 27 per cent at 3 PM, and media reports claim that the Election Commission's dashboard showed it to be 28 per cent at 9 PM.

It is unlikely that the BNP will give up its protests against the Hasina government immediately. They are likely to be met with fierce police action. Five days before the polls, the incumbent law minister of the country had claimed, "So far, we have no intention of banning BNP." However, after this victory, that may become an option.

Nearly 20,000 BNP workers (the government figure is half that) are in jail. Many within the country are hiding. According to an alarming report by the daily, Prothom Alo, so fearful are even the district-level functionaries of the BNP that they are spending nights in "crop fields, river chars and jungles" while others are "taking shelter in boats in the middle of the river" and still unable to avoid arrest. If the BNP has not succumbed so far, it is unlikely to do so after the elections.

The AL is also likely to face post-election intra-party conflicts. It endorsed rebels from its own ranks to contest as "independents" against official candidates. Of the 436 "independent" candidates in the fray, nearly 80 per cent were from the AL. More than 50 independents have won, defeating the party's official candidates, including three ministers. So, there is bound to be trouble.

PM Hasina will now also have to create a credible parliamentary Opposition. The AL had conceded 26 seats to the Jatiya Party, the "lo al" Opposition in the outgoing Parliament. The Jatiya Party fielded 265 candidates. Most of them either withdrew or refused to campaign in the last few days, claiming a lack of financial support and a one-sided election. The party has won only about a dozen seats and cannot shape up as the "official Opposition". Hasina may have to engineer the charade of an Opposition, cobbling together the "independents" with other rag-tag elements.

There has been speculation that a military intervention could occur if post-poll political unrest persists. However, Hasina has taken steps to forestall such a misadventure.

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In December, the top echelons of the Bangladesh Army were shuffled to ensure loyalists occupied top positions. The most significant of these appointments was that of Lt. General Wakar-uz-Zaman as Chief of General Staff on December 29, 2023. General Zaman is from Hasina's extended family. He is the son-in-law of a former army chief, General Mustafizur Rahman, who was married to Sheikh Hasina's aunt. He is expected to take over when the current Army chief, General S M Shafiuddin Ahmed, retires in June 2024.

Moreover, the Executive has granted unprecedented perks and benefits to the military top brass. The Army is also given infrastructure contracts and allowed to form joint ventures with foreign companies for power generation. It already owns a bank, hotels, and golf clubs and is into pharmaceuticals, shipbuilding and a taxi-cab company. Its leadership is far too snug with the government to attempt a coup.

Thus, the "deep state" -- comprising the security establishment, intelligence agencies and key civil servants with the military as the anchor -- is interested in maintaining the status quo.

From all indications, therefore, the new government may well last its full term. The tipping points, if any, may originate in sanctions by the Western powers and the state of the economy. The US, having failed to make the elections inclusive and participatory, seems to have drawn back for now. Yet, there might be targeted sanctions against the regime in future.

Restrictions on market access based on human rights issues may be a more real prospect. The European Union is the largest importer of garments from Bangladesh. If the EU refuses tariff-free access, that could hurt. Already, Bangladesh's access to export markets may be reduced as it graduates from "least developed country" status in 2026.

The growth in exports and remittances from abroad have been lower than expected and have impacted forex reserves, which were dangerously down at the end of 2023 to $16 billion. In the last week of December, several international suppliers of aviation fuel suspended deliveries due to unpaid dues. Conditions for a cost of living crisis and a likely fall in the local currency thus seem likely to impact the new government.

While the country might face an economic crisis, its political leadership may not suffer. Legislators seem to have amassed enormous wealth by being in power. Analysis of election affidavits by Transparency International Bangladesh shows "a significant spike in assets" among AL ministers and MPs – in two extreme cases, an MP saw a 243,513 per cent increase in moveable wealth in the last 15 years, while the assets of a minister increase by 6,000 per cent! The number of AL candidates with declared assets of over Bangladesh Taka one crore in this election was nearly 88 per cent, from 26 per cent in 2008.

The country's leading English newspaper, The Daily Star, carried an investigative report of a senior minister in Sheikh Hasina's (last) cabinet having purchased at least 260 properties in the UK, with 155 in London alone, at an estimated sum of GBP 134.76 million. None of these details are mentioned in his income tax returns or in his election affidavit. There is no record that he transferred the money abroad legally, either.

All in all, the BNP may have to resign itself to wait another five years. The party, however, seems to have matured beyond expectations. In contrast, the opposite appears to have happened to the ruling AL, once a party of seasoned politicians who were the final arbiters of all political matters. That power seems to have shifted considerably to "deep state" actors.