Is Sachin Pilot readying to fly solo?

Pilot may settle for being a King-maker even if he cannot be the King. By launching his own party, he will be a spoiler for the Congress

The Congress party, reports claim, is reconciled to "drastic action" by its rebel leader Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan. Plainly, Pilot's threat of "drastic action" implies that he may launch his own party and split the Rajasthan Congress. Although his supporters claim that they are hopeful of some intervention by the Congress high command, the split might come as early as June 11, the death anniversary of his father, Rajesh Pilot.

Rumours that Pilot might attempt to fly solo were reinforced by a Newslaundry report that he has hired election-management guru Prashant Kishor's IPAC, a political consultancy firm. An IPAC employee said, "There are 100 of us from IPAC currently working with Sachin...We are directed to hire around 1,100 more. We have suggested names for this new party."

Pilot may have no other option but to chart his own course. After his Ajmer to Jaipur "Jan Chetna Yatra", Pilot had set May 31 as the deadline for the Gehlot government and the Congress to meet his demands. That deadline has come and gone. Many of his demands cannot be met easily.  

It is impossible, for example, to "compensate", as Pilot has demanded, the millions of students who were "cheated" by paper leaks in the state government recruitment examination. Pilot has no specific suggestions about how they may be "compensated", whether by giving them all government jobs or raising the upper age limit for the exams, for example. His demand to disband the Rajasthan Public Service Commission (RPSC) is also outlandish. It is a statutory body, and the government, having appointed its members and chairperson through legal means, cannot ask everybody to resign. The Rajasthan government has already recommended to the President that Babulal Katara, a member of the RPSC, be dismissed as the main accused in the case. He has been arrested by the Special Operations Group set up by the government.

Similarly, Pilot's demand for an inquiry into corruption allegations against the previous Vasundhara Raje government of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) makes little sense when the Gehlot government had already set up the NN Mathur Commission of Inquiry to probe abuse of power and losses to the exchequer caused by it. However, the High Court voided the inquiry commission, which held that the Lokayukta should examine the issue. The state government appealed to the Supreme Court but it upheld the High Court order.

Pilot's grievance with the Congress party stems from his assumption that as the then Rajasthan Pradesh Congress Committee president, the party's electoral victory in 2018 made him the obvious choice as chief minister. He felt done down when the job went to Ashok Gehlot. Despite being the party president and deputy chief minister, in 2020, he tried to topple the Gehlot government with alleged help from the BJP. However, the daring move did not play out in his favour as only 19 legislators eventually supported him, and Gehlot was able to save his government. The rebels had sequestered themselves in a hotel in Manesar in BJP-ruled Haryana, leading to innuendos that the BJP aided Pilot's manoeuvre.

At that time, there were two options before the Congress. It could have appeased Pilot by assuring him that though incumbent chief minister Gehlot would be allowed to complete the rest of his term, Pilot would be the party's chief ministerial candidate in the next election in December 2023. Gehlot might have been amenable to this resolution at that time. But this was not done.

The second option was to let Pilot go after his open display of disloyalty and crass opportunism had failed. He would have had to launch his party in 2020, and not all of the rebel MLAs would have gone with him. The Congress would have cleansed itself, and by the election of 2023, either Pilot would have merged his party with the BJP, or it would have fizzled out as running a party is a costly affair.
 

In the present circumstances, Pilot's negotiating position has become weaker as the leadership knows how limited his support amongst legislators is. At best, Pilot may perhaps be persuaded to stay by offering him the post of State Congress party president. Pilot may be amenable to such an offer. Even if the party were to do badly in the coming elections, it would entrench his position in the Rajasthan State Congress. But the Congress is unlikely to make this offer.

Such a concession to Pilot will not be acceptable to Gehlot, who has since firmed his control over the party. If he wins a majority for the party in December, he is likely to be chief minister again. Moreover, he would not like candidate selection for the assembly election to be left to his bete noir, Pilot. The legislators perhaps also see Gehlot as a stable leader. They are well adjusted to the power structure and realise that his populist schemes have turned the public mood in favour of the Congress. Nor are the Gandhi siblings any longer enamoured of Pilot and his pressure tactics. It seems unlikely, therefore, that Pilot will be offered any inducements to stay on.

The 45-year-old Pilot is impatient, ambitious and is unlikely to wait for his turn as Gehlot haughtily advised him to do. Perhaps he will settle for being a King-maker even if he cannot be the King. By launching his own party, he will be a spoiler for the Congress. The Gujjar community, to which Pilot belongs, is influential in 35 assembly constituencies and 12 Lok Sabha seats. He could act as a spoiler in some of these seats. It may be enough to impact the outcome for the incumbent government.

Pilot's departure, if it indeed takes place on June 11, will certainly provide a strategic advantage to the BJP in Rajasthan. However, whether his solo flight is yet again a BJP-sponsored project or not remains ambiguous as yet.