The job promises: Bihar continues to fuel India's migrant labour force

The manifesto launched by the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the Bihar Assembly elections on Friday made multiple promises to the state’s people. But there was one that stood out, and was meant to stand out: Over 10 million jobs would be created if the NDA was voted back to power.

 

When seen in context, this sounds dangerously like an admission of failure. A comparison with the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) manifesto in 2020 is instructive. In that one, it promised 1.9 million jobs if it was voted into government. Perhaps the fivefold expansion of this number reflects urgency or even anxiety? This is difficult to believe, given that all reports suggest that the NDA is otherwise quite confident of victory. Or does it respond to a hunger and desperation in the electorate that is at least five times greater than it was in 2020? None of these is a comfortable question for the BJP and its alliance.

 

The party-man then in charge of the state, Sanjay Jaiswal, had made it clear in 2020 that only 600,000 of that 1.9 million were in the public sector, and the rest would be well-paid private-sector jobs. Is it that parties are confident that voters will never hold them to account for their promises? Certainly, it is far from clear whether 1.9 million jobs have been created since the BJP entered the ruling alliance in Bihar — or even if 600,000 have been made available in the government sector.

 

The NDA has not made it clear what proportion of its latest promise will be in the public sector. Those are what hold the most appeal for many young voters. Tejashwi Yadav knows this, which is why he has rashly promised one government job per household. The political coach-turned-player, Prashant Kishor, has correctly pointed out that this is wildly unrealistic. But Mr Kishor in turn did not cover himself in glory by promising that the government would promote “local” industry that provides a living wage for young people, who would then not have to leave the state. In fact, this linkage of migration to jobs has complicated the problem considerably. It has clearly tripped up Mr Kishor and led him into making the same sort of unrealistic promise for which he criticises Mr Yadav.

 

Internal migration within the country has become a somewhat more vexed question politically than it has been in our recent history. Bihar has often supplied many of the unskilled and skilled migrants required by states with more vibrant economies. That is how it should be in a well-functioning economy: Hinterland areas where production is more efficient should logically see an exodus of workers seeking higher wages elsewhere. This process is nothing to be ashamed of — it is how development has always happened.

 

For the past decade or so, however — and doubly since the pandemic — many of the states accustomed to receiving migrants from Bihar and other parts of the Hindi belt have become less receptive. There is a mainstreaming among many Indian regional parties of policies that seek to create preferences or even quotas for local hires. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said as much in a recent rally, singling out Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and other Opposition-ruled states for criticism.

 

But some of the problem lies at home as well. In both Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar politicians have begun to present internal migration as a negative. UP Chief Minister Adityanath even reportedly said that the 2023 Global Investors Summit in Lucknow would cause so much employment to be generated that nobody from the state would have to migrate in search of a job.

 

But the Union government’s visible effort to channel private investment to Bihar and UP has not been successful — at least not at the scale needed to address those states’ aspirations. A lot more has to be put in place before a private company will choose UP over Gujarat, Maharashtra, or Tamil Nadu: Better courts and administration; more efficient transport linkages to the coasts, and reliable and cheap power; reduced political risk; and a more compliant workforce.

 

The main implication of the “10 million jobs” manifesto is that these conditions have not been achieved in Bihar. Nobody can question the dedication of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to his state. But it appears that the ruling alliance has confessed in public that, whatever may happen in future, it has not done as well in the past as voters might have been promised.