Can Kamala bloom?

Mr Biden may have stepped aside too late

United States President Joe Biden may have done right by his party by withdrawing from the presidential race but whether his gesture will significantly improve the Democrats’ chances of retaining the White House in November is still an open question. Visibly frail, he finally heeded growing calls to step down after dallying for 25 days following a disastrous performance against Republican rival Donald Trump in the first presidential debate on June 27, and multiple gaffes at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 75th anniversary summit less than a month later. But he leaves his nominee, Kamala Harris, 59, just 107 days to convince the Democratic Party, donors, and voters of her fitness for office.

Ms Harris made waves by becoming the first woman of African-American and South Asian descent to serve as vice-president. She brought to the office her experience as California’s attorney general and, since 2016, that state’s junior senator, where she attracted attention for her sharp questioning of Mr Trump’s executive nominees. Since then, her political accomplishments have been underwhelming. She withdrew from the 2020 presidential race following lacklustre performances in the intra-party debates, and her record as vice-president has done little to sharpen her political persona. Ms Harris begins her campaign just as Mr Trump’s favourability ratings rose to their highest in four years following the failed assassination attempt and a ringing endorsement at the Republican National Convention last week. His choice of a former liberal as vice-president may draw undecided voters, come November. Ms Harris’ head-to-head performance in the polls against Mr Trump is discouraging. The latest poll averages show Mr Trump leading Ms Harris by two percentage points (47 per cent to 45 per cent), just marginally less than the 2.5 percentage point gap over Mr Biden. If the maverick independent candidate, Robert F Kennedy Jr, is added to the fray, the gap between Mr Trump and Ms Harris expands to six percentage points.

Before she can take on a formidable opponent, Ms Harris has work to do within her party. Several challengers have withdrawn and telethons by her campaign through Sunday suggest that she has locked in a fair number of the 4,000 delegates to back her candidacy at the Chicago convention on August 19 and 20. Although she has positioned herself as a progressive, she has not noticeably developed a rapport with this constituency beyond her vocal opposition to anti-abortion laws. Her backing for Mr Biden’s implacable support for Israel in the war against Hamas, which progressives oppose, could remain a sticking point. She has secured endorsement from the Congressional Black Caucus and Congressional Hispanic Caucus as well as the Clintons. Meanwhile, big donors such as LinkedIn’s Reid Hoffman, George and Alex Soros, and some Wall Street donors have rallied to her, enabling her to stump up $41 million within hours after her candidacy was announced. These developments suggest that Ms Harris is a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination. As for voters, her challenge lies in mobilising the traditional base of African-American and Hispanic voters to come to the hustings, and convincing undecided voters in swing states, now leaning towards Mr Trump, to vote for a non-white woman. In that respect, her vice-presidential choice for the ticket will be critical.