Doubling down on Maga: Trump-II Cabinet choices are less moderate

With a former Fox News anchor, a former World Wrestling Entertainment chief executive, hedge fund managers, anti-vaxxers, climate-change deniers, anti-immigrant advocates, big business supporters, America First cheerleaders, hawks and Elon Musk, President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet choices have proven reliably aligned to his Make America Great Again (Maga) agenda. The maverick nature of his choices, unleavened by moderate voices, has startled even the Republican faithful and points to a doubling down on campaign promises he has steadfastly followed since his first term.

 

As far as the economy and trade are concerned, Mr Trump has signalled his protectionist intentions. Earlier this week, he threatened to impose additional tariffs on his three largest partners — Mexico, Canada (25 per cent each) and China (an additional 10 per cent) — on grounds of unfair trade practices and the flow of illegal drugs and undocumented immigrants. His choice of Jamieson Greer as US trade representative (USTR) is unlikely to hinder this move. Mr Greer is a veteran of the first Trump administration, serving as chief of staff to then USTR Robert Lighthizer, who renegotiated the North American free trade deal with Mexico and Canada and shaped Mr Trump’s original tariffs on Chinese imports worth $370 billion.

 

Mr Greer was part of the team that negotiated a trade deal in 2020. That involved China buying goods worth $200 billion from the US. The target was never met, partly due to the pandemic. Though there is relief that India has been excluded from initial tariff hikes and hopes that Trump-Modi bonhomie will keep it that way, it was the first Trump administration that cut off the country’s access to the Generalised System of Preferences, the US’ largest and oldest duty-free trade programme. India was the largest beneficiary of the programme. At the time, the USTR had said the move was prompted by India’s failure to provide “equitable and reasonable access” to its markets. With the Joe Biden administration leaving Trump tariffs untouched, India need not expect relief from the new administration. Duties on Harley-Davidson motorcycles was one pain point then; concessions for Tesla, owned by Elon Musk, the powerful head of the new Department of Government Efficiency, could be on the cards.

 

Also worrying for India is the choice for the office of commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, the billionaire chief executive officer of the hedge fund Cantor Fitzgerald. He is co-chair of Mr Trump’s transition team and equates America First with “American Citizens Employed First”. As the key Cabinet member responsible for implementing the tariff regime, his hardline protectionist views will find an echo in Mr Trump’s pick for Homeland Security, which oversees border and immigration, Kristi Noem. A former governor of South Dakota, Ms Noem had controversially deployed the state’s National Guard troops on the southern border, an indication of her stance on immigration. From the point of view of India’s information-technology industry, Ms Noem’s department, together with the Department of Labour, will be responsible for the H-1B and Green Card processes, which had been destabilised during Mr Trump’s first term.

 

With Tulsi Gabbard as director of National Intelligence, with her ties to Russia and Syria, pro-Israeli Marco Rubio as secretary of state, Fox News’ Peter Hegseth, a white supremacist, as defence secretary, Trump II can be expected to be more turbulent than Trump I. The world and India must brace themselves for impact.