Migration slowdown reveals shifting patterns, rising suburban growth

EAC-PM study highlights reduced migration to metros, rise of counter-magnet cities, and calls for balanced urbanisation with jobs closer to rural and suburban areas

An estimated 400 million Indians qualify as domestic migrants, and a study now suggests this is about 11.78 per cent lower than the number enumerated by the last Census, held in 2011. Consequently, the migration rate, which stood at 37.64 per cent of the population in 2011, is estimated to have reduced to 28.88 per cent in 2023. In this context, the study released by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) does well to examine trends in domestic migration in India and associated urbanisation patterns. Instead of relying on official government statistics, the study uses high-frequency statistics on unreserved passenger volumes on trains, mobile phone-roaming data, and district-level banking data to understand the patterns and the ebb and flow of migration. Domestic migration is primarily an exit strategy for the rural poor or people residing in less developed regions of the country in search of economic gains. However, the gains often do not match up to a migrant’s aspirations. Domestic migration is, therefore, largely seen as an outcome of unequal development strategies and regional disparities. The slowing of migration, as shown by the study, may be regarded as a case for optimism on account of improved economic conditions and opportunities at the places of origin of migrants, and percolation of gains from socio-economic development in the country. Equally, it could be a result of diminishing economic opportunities in big urban agglomerations, forcing would-be migrants to stay back and seek livelihood options at the place of origin or to move back close to their home states.

 

Interstate variations present an interesting picture. Together, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal account for about half (48 per cent) the outbound migrants. At the same time, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu together account for about 48 per cent of incoming migrants. But even in these states, the percentage of migrants headed to the respective states has reduced. While there is clear evidence of reverse migration during the pandemic, the movement of people went up after the restrictions were lifted but are yet to reach pre-pandemic levels.

 

A companion working-paper released by the EAC-PM further elaborates on the issue. The paper studies trends in suburban travel on the Indian Railways to reveal an interesting insight. In the past decade, suburban travel to the four metropolitan cities has either dipped or displayed very little growth. This has been accompanied by the rise of counter-magnet cities. Thane in Maharashtra, Kanchipuram in Tamil Nadu, Ghaziabad in Uttar Pradesh, and North 24 Parganas and South 24 Parganas districts in West Bengal have seen significant growth along with a concomitant reduction in agricultural land use. Clearly, these areas have been able to intercept some of the migration flows to Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, and Kolkata.

 

Two important but related issues deserve policy attention in this regard. First, there is a need to improve public-services delivery and augment job creation in rural areas and smaller towns to arrest excessive domestic migration in the country. Bringing jobs and livelihood opportunities closer to people and sprucing up transport infrastructure through multimodal connectivity can help relocate businesses to suburban and rural areas throughout the country. Second, efforts must be put in place to correct the skewed urbanisation patterns in the country and decongest the cities. Developing new industrial clusters and suburbs can divert migration towards smaller towns, promoting more balanced development across the country.