Pakistan's manifest destiny

Uncertain poll timetable points to more instability

As former Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan languishes in jail following his second arrest in three months, Pakistan prepares for polls on an uncertain timetable. On August 9, the National Assembly was dissolved on PM Shehbaz Sharif’s advice, marking the end of a chaotic five years, which started with Mr Khan in the PM’s seat. Mr Khan was widely believed to be an approved candidate of Pakistan’s military-intelligence complex, but became the first Pakistan PM to be removed from office through a no-confidence motion in April 2022. His Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) offered the beleaguered country liberation from the overwhelming influence of the two traditional political families, the Sharifs and the Bhuttos. But his tenure, allegedly a unique experiment in military-democratic rule, did not change the trajectory of Pakistan’s destiny. With the economy limping under a crushing foreign debt, much of it incurred for energy-related purchases, a belated approval of a relief package from the International Monetary Fund is unlikely to significantly change the country’s predicament.

Mr Khan, who enjoys considerable popularity among young people, has been debarred from politics for five years, although he was arrested on a charge that ordinarily should have been dismissed as misdemeanour — retaining state gifts without informing the authorities concerned. Indeed, Mr Khan’s prime ministership follows a familiar template in Pakistani politics, which has had a long history of coups, assassinations, and arrests. No democratically elected PM in the nation’s 75-year-old history has completed a five-year term. In all, there has been just one instance of a peaceful transition of democratic power. Conversely, none of the country’s four military dictators has faced jail time for subverting the Constitution. The real concern for Pakistan — and India — is the upcoming National Assembly elections. Under the normal timetable, it falls due in November. The complication is that last week the government approved the results of a digital census, which saw the country’s population rise to 241 million from 207 million. Pakistan’s law dictates that elections can take place based on constituency delimitations drawn on the basis of the latest census numbers. The Election Commission says it will take at least four months to redraw the constituencies, suggesting that 2024 would be a more realistic schedule for the elections.

This long interregnum under a weak caretaker PM is concerning in a country in which the military wields excessive power without much responsibility. It has acquired additional clout because of its close relations with regional hegemon China, despite rumours to the contrary. For India, given unfavourable relations with both countries, the prospect of a power vacuum in Islamabad raises the spectre of renewed action by terror groups and drug smugglers on the northern borders as Pakistani youths throng to the country’s two most dynamic job opportunities. Although the ceasefire between the two countries has held so far, provocations in Punjab and J&K could severely weaken India’s attempts to normalise the situation in the latter, now that Article 370 has been read down. So, extra vigilance needs to be the watchword.