Talking peace in Jeddah

India offers a new perspective

The peace summit at Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, attended by over 40 countries over the weekend to explore a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine crisis represents a small if significant shift in the axis of global power politics. The two-day summit was part of a diplomatic initiative by Ukraine to build support for its predicament beyond its traditional Western supporters of Europe and the US, and their allies to the Global South, an indication, perhaps, of the growing influence of this varied grouping in international politics. There was no breakthrough — indeed, none was expected — but there were several diplomatic developments at this summit, which took place 18 months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February last year. First, the fact that the summit was hosted by Saudi Arabia, rather than a Western power, pointed to the recognition of the kingdom’s expanding clout in the region, more so after its peace outreach, via China’s interventions, to traditional regional enemy Iran. Second, senior representatives from the US and China, with widely differing views on the war, chose to attend. And third, the summit saw India offer a new perspective on the peace framework.

The big message from the summit was the growing isolation of Russia President Vladimir Putin, whose invasion of Ukraine disrupted the global economy’s recovery from the pandemic and threatens to expand into a nuclear confrontation. This much was clear from the Russia-Africa summit held late last month, which saw far lower participation from African heads of state than the 2019 summit, or the US-Africa summit held late last year. It is China’s newly nuanced position that attracted attention. Its 12-point charter in March proposing a framework for a political settlement between Ukraine and Russia drew little response, being focused mostly on condemning the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and reiterating the issue of territorial integrity, the principal objective being Beijing’s claim on Taiwan. Though newly reinstated Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reassured his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov that China would uphold an impartial position, a ministry statement underlined that the Jeddah talks had helped “consolidate international consensus”, though the contours of such unanimity are unclear yet. The message, therefore, is clear: That China proposes to play a key role in any settlement on Russia-Ukraine.

So far India has played an adroit diplomatic balancing act in the crisis, declining to criticise Russia in serial UN resolutions but suggesting that dialogue rather than belligerence was a preferred option — values National Security Advisor Ajit Doval underlined at Jeddah —  even as the country accessed cheaper Russian oil supplies in the face of Western sanctions. As the current holder of the G20 presidency, India wields influence on the peace process. In this context, Mr Doval’s statement upholding respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity by all states without exception could alter its dynamics. It has long been accepted that Ukraine would accept Russia’s claims on Crimea if Moscow vacated the eastern regions it occupied in 2014. Mr Doval’s statement, no doubt aimed at Chinese encroachments on Indian territory, comes at a time when Kyiv has upped its military aggression on the Black Sea. How far this point will play out in any future peace plan remains an open question. But the well-attended summit at Jeddah could mark a small step before a great leap forward in the peace process.