Best of BS Opinion: India-Canada ties reset amid heat and oil concerns

Here are the best of Business Standard's opinion pieces for today

Canada and India have formally reset ties after a prolonged diplomatic freeze. During his visit to New Delhi, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to conclude a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement by year-end and target a doubling of trade by 2030. The thaw follows tensions under Justin Trudeau over Ottawa’s allegations regarding the killing of a Sikh extremist, which India denied. Carney’s emphasis on issue-based partnerships aligns with India’s trade push. Critical minerals and energy security featured prominently, though legal processes in Canada remain a potential source of friction. Sustaining the reset, as our first editorial notes, will depend on careful handling of legal proceedings in Canada to avoid renewed tensions.

 

Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department has forecast above-normal heatwave days across northern and western states from March to May after one of the driest February spells since 2001. Wheat, mustard and chickpea crops are in grain-filling and harvest stages, and a 2-3 degree Celsius rise could cut wheat yields by up to 15 per cent. The 2022 heatwave, which forced export restrictions, remains a recent warning, highlights our second editorial. Rainfall deficits in Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh have weakened soil moisture. Beyond agriculture, higher temperatures could strain irrigation, electricity supply and public health systems. District advisories, timely insurance settlements and flexible procurement will be essential if conditions intensify.

 

R Jagannathan argues that India must prepare economically for a more conflict-prone global order. Referencing the continuing Ukraine war and tensions involving the US, Israel and Iran, he writes that deterrence depends on credible capability and industrial depth. Despite advances in indigenisation, gaps persist in air power, procurement cycles and force readiness. He calls for closer integration between civilian industry and defence production, stronger cyber and information capabilities, protection of critical infrastructure and strategic stockpiling of energy and essential supplies to reduce vulnerability during crises.

 

Sonal Varma assesses the risks of West Asian tensions primarily through oil. India imports over 85 per cent of its crude, much of it transiting the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the economy exposed to supply disruptions and freight shocks. A sustained 10 per cent rise in oil prices could trim growth, raise inflation and widen the current account deficit if passed through to consumers. India’s reserves provide a short buffer, but prolonged volatility may require fiscal adjustments and cautious monetary policy. Diversification and expanded strategic reserves remain central to resilience.

 

Finally, Gunjan Singh reviews Minxin Pei’s The Broken China Dream, a book which examines how Deng Xiaoping’s market reforms preserved party supremacy without institutional checks, creating structural weaknesses later consolidated under Xi Jinping. Pei contrasts Deng’s collective leadership model with Xi’s centralised authority, ideological tightening and more assertive foreign policy. By rejecting political reform while liberalising the economy, Deng entrenched a system vulnerable to corruption and decay. The book argues that Xi’s consolidation was not an aberration but the logical outcome of incomplete reform, with long-term consequences for China’s governance and external posture.

 

Stay tuned!