Semi-final shock for Left in Kerala local body polls as rivals gain

Months before Assembly elections, Congress sees resurgence and BJP continues making inroads.

The results for Kerala’s local body polls came out on November 13, just a few months ahead of the Assembly elections. If traditional trends had prevailed, the ‘semi-final’ would have been a cakewalk for the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) — which had marked a rare return to power in 2021, bypassing conventional political wisdom in the state. 

However, the Congress-led United Democratic Fund (UDF) surprised political pundits on Saturday with a landslide victory in the local body polls, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) also recorded a historic breakthrough in Kerala by clinching the Thiruvananthapuram municipal corporation.  

The decisive win came as a revival for the UDF — Leader of Opposition in Kerala Assembly V D Satheesan called it the Congress’s “best performance since the first elections for local bodies in 1995”. It had won 321 gram panchayats, 38 block panchayats, three district panchayats, 41 municipalities and one corporation in 2020. This time, the party emerged victorious in 505 out of the 941 gram panchayats; 79 out of 152 block panchayats; seven out of 14 district panchayats; 54 out of 87 municipalities; and four of six municipal corporations.  

Meanwhile, the NDA won 50 seats in the 101-member municipal corporation in Thiruvananthapuram, securing the corporation rule and putting up its best-ever show. In addition, the alliance secured approximately 20 per cent of the votes across the state based on initial assessment, rising from the 15 per cent vote share last time.  

This breakthrough made national waves: Prime Minister Narendra Modi called it a “watershed moment”. In a post on X, he wrote: “Our party will work towards this vibrant city's growth and boost ‘Ease of Living’ for the people”. One of NDA’s promises for Thiruvananthapuram is making it one of the venues of the 2036 Olympic Games, for which India is in the race. However, one major concern for the BJP is that it could not convert the rise in the number of wards into electoral success  — outside of Thiruvananthapuram, it could make a considerable dent only in the Tripunithura and Palakkad municipalities.  

The bipolar nature of Kerala politics seems to be unaffected with the UDF and LDF getting vote shares of 40 per cent and 35 per cent respectively. “Traditionally, we used to witness Left Front supremacy in local body polls. This time, there seems to be a clear shift in votes towards not just the UDF but also the NDA. This is a clear trend of anti-incumbency, as people voted against the policies and actions,” said J Prabhash, a political analyst and former Kerala University pro vice-chancellor. 

Why LDF fell behind 

Till Saturday, even top Congress leaders would not have imagined such a victory. The comments by Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president Sunny Joseph, calling wins in some corporations and municipalities a “surprise”, are proof of that. “While the party had expected a win, the scale of public support exceeded expectations. It is a strong rejection of the LDF government’s anti-people policies,” Joseph said, calling the polls a ‘semi-final’ to the upcoming Assembly elections. 

Congress leaders indicated that the alleged gold theft in the Sabarimala Ayyappa Temple gold theft under the LDF’s watch kept the Hindu votes away: The majority community has traditionally been a vote bank for the Left. This refers to the case of alleged theft and misappropriation of gold from the Sabarimala temple’s Ayyappan shrine, which was discovered during audits in 2024-24, and led to the finding that the gold panels in the shrine were replaced with copper. “The crime epitomised the government’s entrenched corruption, nepotism and barely concealed contempt for the faith of people in their respective religions,” Satheesan told the media. 

According to reports, the initial assessment by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) indicates that the party failed to clear its stance on the Sabarimala issue. Further, it could not highlight the achievement of extreme poverty eradication, and the government benefits targeting women, youth, pensioners and workers in the unorganised sector.  

Adding to the poll debacle, a statement by CPM veteran M M Mani accusing the people of ‘ingratitude’ also stirred controversy. “After accepting the pensions distributed by the government and eating good food, they nicely turned against us. That’s what I think,” Mani told reporters, adding that the state has never seen such ‘extensive development’. Though the party distanced itself from the comment immediately, this already led to a backlash from the UDF. 

Congress has its own share of concerns, despite its stellar performance, ahead of the Assembly polls. One of them is strengthening organisational structure. Another is the possible dampening of its image due to too many claimants for the chief minister’s post — the aspirants include Satheesan; AICC general secretary and Alappuzha MP K C Venugopal; former Kerala home minister and CWC member Ramesh Chennithala.  

“If we continue this unity, we can achieve a historic victory in the upcoming Assembly elections. Let us continue this excellent organised effort,” Chennithala said. Satheesan is currently leading the race, with the media calling him ‘captain’ after multiple poll victories in the last few years. After the local body poll victory, Venugopal was quick to give credit to the collective effort of a well-oiled machine, without giving credit to anyone individually. “People are our captains,” he said.