If global supply chains are breaking, can India help rebuild them? And as AI reshapes the world, can India shape it in its own image? Speaking at Business Standard’s BS Manthan summit on Wednesday, former NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said this moment of disruption is not a setback but a strategic opening, provided India fixes its fundamentals.
“When cracks appear, it is an opportunity for an emerging market to rise,” said the former G-20 sherpa of India, urging a shift from chasing ease of doing business to cutting the real cost of doing business, even as the country builds AI that is rooted in Indian data and realities.
How is global disruption a once-in-a-generation opportunity for India?
Kant argued that fractured global supply chains are not the end of globalisation but a shift towards “re-globalisation”. The world is moving from just-in-time models to friend-shoring built on trust, resilience and predictability.
In his view, when cracks appear in global value chains, emerging markets get a once-in-a-generation opportunity. The goods component of global trade has suffered, but services, data flows and capital flows have risen.
However, India can only penetrate global markets if it builds size and scale in manufacturing. Competitiveness, and not protection, will determine success, he stressed.
Why must India shift focus from ‘ease’ to ‘cost’ of doing business?
According to Kant, India talks about ease of doing business, but the real issue is the cost of doing business.
Credit in India is expensive, he said. The statutory liquidity ratio (SLR), at around 18 per cent, is among the highest in the world. Priority sector lending norms, while important, need better targeting. High cost of capital translates into high cost of manufacturing.
He also highlighted India’s low private credit-to-GDP ratio at just 50 per cent, compared with 220 per cent in the US, 180 per cent in China and 165 per cent in Europe. Without greater credit penetration to the private sector, sustained high growth will be difficult.
Lower credit costs, cheaper power and land on long-term leases at competitive rates are essential if India wants to scale manufacturing.
Why must Sarvam AI be powered by Indian data?
Kant described Sarvam AI as a strong domestic beginning, but made it clear that its future depends on one decisive factor: Data.
India, he said, has a structural advantage that few countries possess — 1.4 billion people with digital identity, deep data layers through its digital public infrastructure and a vast pool of engineering talent. But having data is not enough. It must be used to train and refine Indian AI models.
Sarvam AI, he noted, will benefit only if Indians actively use it. Without widespread domestic adoption, even a well-built model will struggle to match global leaders. “Data, and data alone, is the key,” he stressed, underlining that Indian AI must be trained on Indian datasets to become globally competitive.
He also said that AI in India must be multilingual, low-bandwidth and inclusive. With 22 official languages and multiple dialects, any AI system that does not operate seamlessly across languages cannot serve Indian society at scale.
Kant cautioned against obsessing over sheer computing power. While global firms are securing millions of high-end GPUs, India’s edge lies in developing sophisticated software that uses optimised computing resources efficiently. AI, he suggested, will eventually become commoditised, much like search engines, and long-term winners will be those who combine intelligent software design with rich data ecosystems.
Can India power its AI ambitions sustainably?
With AI and data centres consuming vast energy and water resources, sustainability is critical.
Kant noted that India has already installed around 260 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel capacity. Data centres, he said, should run on renewables, backed by small modular reactors for base load. Transmission infrastructure must be upgraded, particularly from solar-rich states such as Rajasthan and Gujarat, to prevent renewable energy losses.
Smarter grids, water recycling and district cooling systems will be essential as India expands data centre capacity.
What can India learn from China’s manufacturing rise?
Kant urged benchmarking against China’s experience, citing books such as Apple in China and Chip War.
China enabled scale manufacturing by providing long-term land leases at low rates, assured power supply and ready credit. It mobilised large workforces, including women, and built ecosystems around anchor companies.
India, he emphasised, is not an autocracy. But there are lessons in cost competitiveness and state-level execution.
How should India respond to unpredictable US tariffs?
On reports of steep US tariffs on solar imports, Kant described current US trade policy as unpredictable and subject to constant negotiation and legal scrutiny. He advised staying the course.
India should avoid reactive moves and insist on predictability and consistency in policy. In a volatile environment, a wait-and-watch approach may serve long-term business interests better than rushed decisions.
Can India become a $30 trillion economy?
Kant put India’s ambition in simple terms: turning a $4 trillion economy today into a $30 trillion one in the decades ahead.
Few countries have achieved such a leap. GDP must grow eightfold, per capita income ninefold and manufacturing sixteenfold. Over 100 countries remain trapped at middle-income levels.
He outlined four pillars:
- Sustainable urbanisation
- Scale and competitiveness in manufacturing
- Improved Human Development Index outcomes
- At least 12 states growing at over 10 per cent annually for three decades
- Structural reforms, particularly at the state level, will be decisive.
What role will private enterprise and foreign capital play?
Kant underscored that India will grow only if free enterprise grows.
Government must set policy direction, but the private sector drives growth. Foreign investment brings technology, capital and global market integration.
He cited examples of Japanese investment, Apple’s manufacturing footprint creating 300,000 jobs for women, and collaborations in semiconductors, AI and green hydrogen. Reducing green hydrogen costs from $4.5 per kg to $1 per kg will require large-scale production and renewable energy, areas where foreign partnerships can help.
Retail, he noted, has already opened gradually to global players, and competition should continue to evolve.
Will the formal-informal divide disappear?
In response to a question on AI and formalisation, Kant suggested that the distinction between formal and informal sectors will blur.
The gig economy will expand. Contract professionals can deliver high-quality work, as seen during his tenure at NITI Aayog. Financial institutions must adapt and extend credit to gig workers.
Growth, he implied, will not fit neatly into old categories.
 "Global disruption not a setback, but an opening: Amitabh Kant at BS Manthan")
