Indian PC market to get a booster shot from Tamil Nadu's free laptop scheme

Industry experts say the million-unit tender is likely to give the personal computer market a good bump, but could push value down since the government will want a special prices for such a large orde

The Tamil Nadu state government's announcement last month to distribute 1 million free laptops for college students - the largest such scheme as well as single tender so far - is expected to lift growth in the PC market.

 

India’s traditional PC market (desktops, notebooks, and workstations) grew 8.1 per cent year-over-year (YoY) in the January-March quarter of calendar year 2025, with 3.3 million units shipped, according to data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter of growth.

 

Analysts believe that the tender from the Electronics Corporation of Tamil Nadu (ELCOT) will further boost the market.

 

Tarun Pathak, Research Director of Mobile Devices and Ecosystem at Counterpoint Research, said that the total laptop and personal computers market size in India is roughly 14 million devices per year. “Hence, the ELCOT deal will have an impact in the sense that it is 7-8 per cent of the total market size. One will need to watch out for the distribution and execution strategy of the government, and whether these devices are bought in one phase or in several phases,” he added.

 

However, Bharath Shenoy, senior market analyst, IDC India, points out that though the procurement will benefit the commercial PC segment, the value is likely to drop.

 

“This will definitely spike the commercial PC market by a good margin. Volume of a million notebooks is what all vendors do together in a regular quarter. So, this will add almost a quarter's worth of volume of commercial notebooks. This will most likely happen at a very aggressive price, a special price given to the government, so the value would drop,” he said.

 

According to a Business Standard report, the latest laptop procurement is being considered as the largest-ever ‘single tender’. These will be provided free to 1 million college students in Tamil Nadu.

 

While the deal is large, many are wondering how the specifications will match the latest development in the PC market: AI-enabled PCs.

 

The laptop specifications include any processor equal to or above Intel Core i3 or AMD Ryzen, with a minimum RAM of 8 gigabytes, a size of 14 inches or 15.6 inches, and a USB-C type port. The tenders say that the companies should commit around 100,000 laptops for the tenders to be valid, with a similar unit having a market price in the range of around Rs 30,000–35,000 a unit. The technical bids are expected to be opened by the end of June.

 

Shenoy noted that such deals will not happen on AI PCs as that’s a different market altogether. “AI-powered PC sales are picking up but AI PC sales aren't the market driver yet. It’s just that adoption for AI PCs is picking up (some of the big enterprises who were earlier buying regular notebooks are now buying AI PCs, the entry level hardware enabled AI PCs). It is more like an alternative to a regular PC and that too if it's provided at good price/discounts. ELCOT or any big manifesto deals might not happen on AI PCs as that's a different market altogether,” he said.

 

According to sources, nearly all major equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the country - including Dell, HP, Lenovo, Acer, ASUS and Samsung — have already shown interest in the tender and have engaged in multiple rounds of discussions with the state government.

 

Such a government-backed scheme has been announced after at least four to five years; typically, these are most sought after by state governments and announced just before Assembly elections. Tamil Nadu, too, is expected to go for elections next year.

 

Between 2012 and 2015, the Uttar Pradesh government had reportedly distributed 1.5 million laptops, making it one of the largest distribution schemes ever made by any government in the world at that point.

 

The Tamil Nadu government itself had a free laptop scheme for students in government-aided schools and colleges, which was supplied in six phases between 2011 and 2017.

 

Another state that has tried the laptop-as-freebie model was Andhra Pradesh, which had decided to provide laptops to students of classes 9–12 under the Amma Vodi and Vasati Deevena schemes.

 

Shenoy points out that there are a few reasons why such deals lost momentum. Since 2020-2021, the priorities of the government have drifted from PC procurement to other requirements like health, infrastructure, logistics etc., particularly during and immediately after the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

“From 2023, even after schools, colleges opened up, the manifesto deals didn’t pick up as much as it was anticipated till now when ELCOT has been announced. The price of PCs has been increasing consistently from 2020-2021. The manifesto deals like ELCOT happen on very aggressive pricing and it became difficult for the government to procure PCs in such big volume at the current prices,” he added.

 

The other reason was the rise of tablets. The tablets category started becoming more powerful, more durable, and started witnessing more adoption. Tablets started becoming a good alternative for PCs in many of these manifesto deals.

 

However, Pathak of Counterpoint Research added that the timing of the scheme is right but distribution will need to be watched. “The scheme has come at the right time since a lot of students, who bought laptops and personal computers in 2021 following the pandemic, will be looking to replace their old machines. But the configuration being provided by the government will also need to be kept in mind. We will also need to check on the government strategy of preventing the pilfering of these machines into the second-hand laptop and PC market,” said Pathak.

Make-in-India gets a leg-up

With such a large deal and the central government’s focus on prioritising Make in India, analysts also believe that the entire volume may get assembled in the country.

 

“There are high chances that a good chunk of this order might get assembled in India. Whether the entire volume would get assembled in India isn’t sure yet as the timeframe is less and the notebooks might have to get supplied before model code of conduct starts (Tamil Nadu state elections are scheduled in April-May 2026),” said Shenoy.