Commodity Prices

Gold and silver delivered their strongest returns in decades in 2025. While sharp swings and profit booking signal near-term risks, experts say macro factors may still support prices in 2026

Gold and silver are likely to hold their ground next week, as traders are awaiting meeting minutes of US Federal Reserve's FOMC, which will provide cues on the monetary policy outlook, analysts said. Though trading activity will remain subdued next week, with only a few key economic releases lined up, including November's pending home sales and meeting minutes from December's Federal Open Market Committee on Tuesday, which will steer bullion prices. Gold and silver prices are likely to maintain their upward momentum in 2026, driven by prospects of global rate cuts, safe-haven appeal and firm industrial demand, however, traders may turn cautious as the pace of gains may moderate after an exceptional 2025, they added. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures gained by Rs 5,677, or 4.23 per cent, during the week to touch an lifetime high of Rs 1,40,465 per 10 grams on Friday. "On the technical front, after a staggering rally of 2025, we don't expect similar returns in 2026.

Oil price outlook: The most significant downward pressure on oil prices this month stems from renewed optimism regarding the conflict in Ukraine.

WTI plunged 2.5 per cent over the past five trading sessions to $58.05/bbl, shedding 5.5 per cent in the last month and more than 20 per cent since mid-June highs near $73/bbl

MCX attributed the halt to a 'technical issue' and announced that trading would begin from its Disaster Recovery (DR) site, though it did not provide full details of the fault.

Our fund of funds isn't allowed to invest in silver futures, only in silver ETFs. So, we had no option but to pause fresh purchases - else, investors would enter at a 10 per cent premium, Shah said

WTI crude oil prices opened weaker, tumbling over 4 per cent in early trading, a sharp reversal from the prior week's modest 2.2 per cent.

Analysts believe buying Gold ETFs on dips and physical gold in small quantities will be ideal for investors this festive season, as gold is expected to stay firm in the short-term

After a flat performance over the past 12 months (up just 3.85%), analysts see Hindalco stock set for a rebound, supported by a combination of commodity dynamics and company-specific factors.

Stock Market Highlights on September 18, 2025: Among the broader markets, the Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 indices settled with gains of 0.38 per cent and 0.29 per cent, respectively

Silver outlook continues to remain constructive on rate cut expectations, huge ETF inflows, elevated geopolitical and economic risks. Strength in gold bodes well for silver.

Gold outlook: Spot gold continues to find robust support from a confluence of macroeconomic factors, chief among them being the rapidly deteriorating fiscal landscape in major economies.

Gold and silver ETFs see record inflows of ₹4,085 crore in June, driven by rising investor interest in precious metals amid global uncertainties and growing ETF acceptance for investment

Oil prices: A meaningful upside in oil prices seems limited as the recent rally has been driven more by geopolitical risks than by fundamental demand

Oil markets may face an oversupply in the second half of 2025, alongside potentially weakened demand due to Trump's inclination towards universal tariffs

The near-term outlook is somewhat bearish unless we see a strong and sustainable recovery in industrial commodities, says Praveen Singh

The World Bank report also forecast that gold prices are likely to set a new record in 2025 as investors seek safe havens for capital amid rising uncertainty, but the price will stabilize in 2026

Gold/Silver ratio above 100 poses a risk to silver prices as it indicates troubles with the global economy. The ratio may rise to 110-112 in the coming weeks

Silver has been subjected to intense selling pressure due to its industrial attribute. Nearly 64 per cent of the total demand for the metal is industrial, says Praveen Singh of Mirae Asset Sharekhan

On April 3, spot gold, buoyed by renewed safe haven demand due to unexpectedly high reciprocal tariff rates that pose a risk to the global trade and economy, soared to a fresh record high of $3,167.84