Crude Oil Market

Even as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, damaged oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf could delay supply recovery and keep global energy prices elevated

In a first since fuel price deregulation, Indian state-run oil marketing companies will pay refineries a discounted price for petrol, diesel, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) and kerosene to limit mounting losses from a self-imposed freeze on retail fuel prices, sources said. The oil marketing companies (OMCs) on March 26 fixed rates for petroleum products that are at a discount of up to Rs 60 per litre to their imported cost, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said. The discounted rates, which are applicable with effect from March 16, will hit standalone refiners such as MRPL, CPCL and HMEL the most. International oil prices have risen from about USD 70 per barrel before the Middle East conflict to over USD 100, but retail petrol and diesel prices in India have remained unchanged, forcing OMCs to absorb the impact. With no immediate end to the conflict in sight, OMCs have decided to fix a discount on the refinery transfer price (RTP) - the internal price at which refineries

Asian nations are increasingly competing for Russian crude oil as an energy crisis mounts amid the month-old war by the US and Israel against Iran, which has choked off roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply. Much of the oil from the mostly shut Strait of Hormuz was headed for Asia, hit hardest by recent energy shocks. Over the weekend, Iran-backed Houthi rebels entered the conflict, further threatening shipping. To shore up global crude oil supplies, the US has temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil shipments already at sea - first for India, then for the rest of the world. Demand is rising in Asia while Russia is raking in billions of dollars. But experts say there is a limit to how much Moscow can boost its exports of crude oil, which is unrefined petroleum needed to make fuels like gasoline and diesel, and it is already exporting at a level close to its previous peak. In addition, Russia's 4-year-old full-scale invasion of Ukraine and recent drone attacks on its energy .

Brent crude futures jumped $3.16, or 2.81 per cent, to $115.73 a barrel ​by 2205 GMT after settling 4.2 per cent ‌higher on ​Friday

A broader escalation-including the potential closure of the Red Sea chokepoint by Yemen's Houthis-would likely push both Brent and WTI to new cycle highs

PM Narendra Modi highlights India's diversified energy import strategy as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt global oil and gas flows

Shortly after settlement, prices turned negative following news of a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin

The "war premium" has pushed Brent crude toward the $100 per barrel threshold, reigniting stagflation ary fears that central banks thought they had conquered

Surge in gold and silver imports drives January trade deficit to $34.68 billion, raising concerns over a wider current account deficit in Q4FY26

Rising crude costs, reduced access to discounted Russian oil and heavy capex may pressure OMCs, though strong GRMs, demand growth and LPG subsidies support profits

Analysts at Mirae Asset Sharekhan expects WTI Crude oil futures to trade within a broader $59-$66 per barrel range in the coming weeks.

HPCL hopes to start crude processing at its 180,000 bpd Barmer refinery in Rajasthan by the end of January, making it India's 2nd -largest state-run refiner, behind Indian ‌Oil Corp

If US and UN sanctions ease, Iranian crude could return to Indian refineries, offering a cost-effective alternative as Russian oil flows shrink

China today has the largest refining capacity globally, with its refining capacity to reach 21 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025

Significant volatility in the second quarter had global benchmark Brent crude futures dropping to a four-year low of $60.23 a barrel on May 5 and then surging to $78.85 on June 19

Officials say India's crude and LNG imports remain steady but warn that any hostilities affecting the Strait of Hormuz could threaten oil flows from Gulf partners

It was not just Brent that was impacted. Europe's oil and gas stocks toppled back nearly 2%, while government bonds of rival producers from Angola to Nigeria also took a hit

The return of Chinese market participants after a five-day public holiday since May 1 was also seen supporting prices on Tuesday

The OPEC+ meeting was moved up to Saturday from the original plan of Monday, three sources told Reuters on Friday, although it was not immediately clear why the meeting was rescheduled

Global oil demand expected to rise by 730,000 b/d in 2025, down from 940,000 b/d last year