Page 2 - El Nino

Snowless NW Himalayas: El Nino leads to dry winter, may have ripple effect

High mountain passes with barely any snow, skiers hoping to slalom down white slopes disappointed and tourists calling off trips to hill destinations... the El Nino effect is playing out across the northwest Himalayas with an unusually dry winter and no immediate relief in the offing. According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), 2023 was the warmest-on-record year and the warming El Nino event is likely to further fuel the heat in 2024. The El Nino phenomenon occurs when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are higher than average in the eastern tropical Pacific, and there is a simultaneous weakening of trade winds. The absence of snowfall is not a one-time thing but affects the annual cycle of snow. If it continues longer, it can have a huge cascading effect on socio-economic benefits. If you don't get (enough) snow, you don't get replenishment of water, it will impact agriculture, your health and can, in turn, impact your economy, glaciologist and Himalayan researcher A N

Agri growth pegged at 7-year low of 1.8% in FY24 due to poor Kharif harvest

However, some experts said the GVA numbers could stand to be revised as the initial estimates are based on extrapolation of figures for five-six months and a final picture will emerge only around Feb

Indian coast sees rise in cyclones; 2.9 mn vulnerable people in Andhra only

El Nino, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Madden-Julian Oscillationamong major reasons for rising cyclones

Global warming threshold could be hit temporarily in 2024: UK's Met Office

The average global temperature for 2024 is forecast to be between 1.34C and 1.58C above the average for the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900, it said

Sugar prices rising worldwide after bad weather damaged crops in Asia

Skyrocketing sugar prices left Ishaq Abdulraheem with few choices. Increasing the cost of bread would mean declining sales, so the Nigerian baker decided to cut his production by half. For scores of other bakers struggling to stay afloat while enduring higher costs for fuel and flour, the stratospheric sugar prices proved to be the last straw, and they closed for good. Sugar is needed to make bread, which is a staple for Nigeria's 210 million people, and for many who are struggling to put food on the table, it offers a cheap source of calories. Surging sugar prices an increase of 55 per cent in two months means fewer bakers and less bread. It is a very serious situation, Abdulraheem said. Sugar worldwide is trading at the highest prices since 2011, mainly due to lower global supplies after unusually dry weather damaged harvests in India and Thailand, the world's second- and third-largest exporters. This is just the latest hit for developing nations already coping with shortages

EL Nino event to continue until Apr 2024, influencing weather patterns: WMO

The ongoing El Nio event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns and contributing to a further spike in temperatures on land and over the ocean, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organisation. The India Meteorological Department earlier this month said EL Nio conditions -- abnormal warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are not likely to influence the southwest monsoon season next year. Amid intensifying El Nio conditions, India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- during the southwest monsoon season this year. As of mid-October, sea surface temperatures and other atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the central-eastern tropical Pacific are consistent with El Nio, the warm phase of El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The El Nio event developed rapidly during July-August and reached moderate strength by September, and is likely to peak as

Global rice prices are not expected to cool down before 2025: World Bank

The Centre has already clamped down on the export of rice from India and imposed hefty import duties on some other variants, thus wiping off almost 40 per cent of supplies from the world rice markets

Cotton output estimated to be lowest in 15 years at 29.51 mn bales: CAI

The country's cotton production is estimated at 29.51 million bales in the 2023-24 marketing season, the lowest in 15 years on less planting amid the El Nino effect, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) said on Tuesday. The cotton marketing season runs from October to September. One bale of cotton is 170 kg. Cotton production is lower by 7.49 per cent from 31.89 million bales in the 2022-23 marketing season. It is also lower than the government estimate of 31.65 million bales for 2023-24. Releasing the first estimate, the CAI said, "After 2008-09, this is the lowest Indian cotton crop." Total area sown to cotton is lower by 5.5 per cent and yield is also expected to drop by up to 20 per cent due to unfavourable weather caused by El Nino, it said. The CAI has projected cotton production at 8.5 million bales in Gujarat, 7.6 million bales in Maharashtra, 3 million bales in Telangana,1.85 million bales in Karnataka, 1.8 million bales in Madhya Pradesh, and 1.6 million bales in Haryan

El Nino may not influence Indian monsoon much in 2024 season, says IMD

El Nino - the warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America - is associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India

IMD predicts warmer November amid intensifying El Nino conditions

Above-normal minimum temperatures are expected in most parts of India in November, barring some areas in the northwest and west-central regions, amid strengthening El Nino conditions, the IMD said on Tuesday. At a press conference here, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said rainfall over the country as a whole in November is most likely to be normal 77-123 per cent of the long-period average. Above-normal rainfall is likely over some areas of the southernmost parts of peninsular India, most parts of northwest India, and many parts of east-central, east and northeast India, he said. EI Nino conditions are prevailing over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest global forecasts indicate that the El Nino conditions are likely to continue during the season and positive IOD conditions are likely to weaken during the coming months, the IMD said. Mohapatra, .

India's rice export restrictions are pushing global south towards a crisis

Every rice eater in the world has felt the pinch of India's export restrictions

Will the September uptick in rural economy sustain in future?

The uptick in monsoon rains in September after a dry August and improvement in kharif acreage seem to be the immediate plausible reasons for the improvement

Centre set to restrict sugar exports after poor monsoon rains: Report

Monsoon rain this year was the lowest since 2018 due to the El Nino weather pattern

Monsoon ends 'normally' as positive factors countered El Nino: IMD

The four-month monsoon season has ended with India receiving "normal" rainfall -- 820 mm against a long-period average of 868.6 mm -- with positive factors countering the effect of El Nino conditions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday. Rainfall between 94 per cent and 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) is considered normal. However, normal cumulative rainfall over the country during the monsoon season doesn't mean even spatial and temporal spread of precipitation. The Indian monsoon refers to inherent fluctuations and changes that occur over time due to various natural factors. This is called natural variability. Research, however, shows climate change is making the monsoon more variable. Increased variability means more extreme weather and dry spells. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said with positive factors countering the effect of El Nino, the 2023 monsoon ended with 94.4 per cent cumulative rainfall, which is considered "normal".

Rabi season: Govt aims 60% of wheat area under climate resilient varieties

Ahead of rabi sowing from next month, the Centre on Tuesday said it targets to bring 60 per cent of the total wheat area of 30 million hectare under the climate-resistant varieties amid strong El Nino conditions. Despite the challenges of climate change, the Union Agriculture Ministry has kept a target of achieving a record wheat output of 114 million tonne in the 2023-24 rabi season against the actual output of 112.74 million tonne in the year-ago period. Sowing of wheat, the main rabi (winter) crop, begins in October, while harvesting starts in March/April. Addressing a national conference held to chalk out a strategy for sowing rabi (winter) crops, Agriculture Secretary Manoj Ahuja said: "There are certain changes in climate change, which is affecting agriculture. Our strategy is climate resilient seeds". Faced with a heatwave in 2021, the government encouraged farmers in 2022 to go for heat-tolerant wheat varieties in 47 per cent of the total wheat acreage of 30 million ...

El Nino unlikely to cause sugar shortage in India in 2023-24: NFCSF

Sugar cooperative NFCSF on Thursday junked rumours of likely sugar shortage in the country due to El Nino, saying domestic availability of the sweetener is not expected to be "adverse" in the 2023-24 season. Sugar season runs from October to September. The crushing operation of 2023-24 is yet to begin. The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd (NFCSF) in a statement said El Nino - which refers to warming of ocean surface - has impacted the drying flurry of monsoon in some parts of Maharashtra. "However, all other cane growing states i.e. Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, Uttarakhand, have received above normal rains which has definitely helped the growth stage of standing cane to gain weight and sucrose content," NFCSF Managing Director Prakash Naiknavare said. He also observed that there is a "widespread rumour" in some sections about possible severe shortage of sugar during 2023-24 season. "The factual situati

Mohali to Manila: Rice economy faces turmoil as El Nino turns up heat

The agriculture department is coordinating with the state's irrigation and energy departments to ensure optimum supply of water and electricity

El Nino's potential impact on rabi crops overcasts govt's fiscal arithmetic

Food inflation rose to a three and a half year high of 11.51 per cent in July this year, compared to 4.31 per cent in the previous month

TMS EP511: OCCRP allegations, Pratt & Whitney, agro-chemical stocks & more

What are OCCRP's allegations against Adani Group? Are Pratt & Whitney engines pulling India's airlines down? Will El-Nino spell trouble for agro-chemicals? What experiments will Vikram and Pragyan do?

India experiences the driest August ever recorded, with a 33% rain deficit

IMD expects a monsoon revival from September 2 onwards, despite El Nino still being active