Skymet says El Nino might strengthen in middle of Indian monsoon this year

Private forecaster warns evolving El Nino could suppress monsoon rainfall, raise heatwave risks and impact farm output, with models pointing to a peak in winter

Private weather  private weather forecasting agency Skymet said on Friday that most climate models predict a return of El Niño in the second half of 2026. 

The phenomenon, which causes unusual warming of surface waters, will pick-up strength in the middle of the Indian monsoon season and peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter, the company said.

 

“Such a development heightens the risk of weather variability, more severely over South Asia, suppressing monsoon rainfall over India,” said Jatin Singh, Skymet’s Founder and Chairman, in a note released Friday.

 

Singh said El Niño significantly disrupts global weather by shifting rainfall patterns, causing droughts in vulnerable regions such as Australia, Southeast Asia, and the Indian subcontinent.

 

He said that the APEC Climate Centre (APCC) — the apex body for climate prediction in the Asia-Pacific region — has expressed fears that drought-bearing El Niño weather is likely to emerge towards July this year.

 

This might affect the quantum of rainfall the country receives between June and September.

 

As per Skymet, an evolving El Niño had earlier corrupted the Indian monsoon in 2014 and 2018.

 

The 2014 season ended in a drought, while 2018 escaped with a thin margin. 

 

In 2023, El Niño broke out in June and persisted for an extended period of eleven months, impacting the Indian monsoon.

 

It also prompted 2024 to become the warmest year on record, as the phenomenon continued until April 2024, resulting in food grain crops, particularly paddy and pulses, being affected, leading to lower production. In turn, this triggered food inflation during the period, Skymet said.

 

It said more than a full-blown El Niño, what is more worrisome is an evolving El Niño, which has a 60 per cent chance of causing “below-normal” rainfall. 

 

An evolving El Niño can delay the monsoon arrival and subsequently vitiate the spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rainfall. Often, it also leads to an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves.