India Oil Import

India's crude oil imports surged to a record high of about 5.6 million barrels per day in October, with refiners stepping up purchases from the Middle East and Russia despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to data from energy intelligence firm Kpler. Middle Eastern supplies accounted for about 2.3 million barrels per day, and Russian crude flows remained strong at around 2 million bpd, Kpler lead analyst Nikhil Dubey said in a post. Higher ship-to-ship transfers helped move more crude through the Strait of Hormuz, supporting a recovery in Gulf supplies during September and October and giving Indian refiners greater flexibility in sourcing. Russian shipments could moderate in November and December as attacks in the Black Sea push up freight rates, making those barrels less competitive on a landed-cost basis. At the same time, Gulf suppliers are offering competitive delivered prices to regain market share in India, Dubey said. However, any renewed disruption to flows throug

Freight rates have dropped now compared to September, offering some relief to Indian refiners, but they still constitute a quarter of the cargo cost compared to less than 5 percent prior to the war

India may face higher crude costs and tighter supply as refiners look for alternatives to Russian barrels amid US tariff pressure and rising fuel demand

Delivered cost of Venezuela's Merey grade surges to $95 bbl, while Russian grade has flipped from a discount to a premium over Dated Brent

Reducing oil import dependence requires India to also curb its demand for oil

In May, flows are expected to come in at close to 1.9 million barrels a day, close to peak levels - though that still includes a period under the US permit that was allowed to expire over the weekend

Greek and Indian tankers had all made their journeys northeast toward Hormuz from waters off Dubai, filled with crude, before they began turning around on Saturday morning

Last month, Washington unveiled ​30-day waivers on US sanctions for the purchase of Russian and Iranian oil at sea in ‌an attempt to ease prices that were driven up by the US-Israeli war on Iran

The purchases mark a turnaround after Indian buyers had earlier limited spot purchases and canceled tenders because offers were too expensive

India is set to import the most oil from Venezuela in almost six years as over 12 million barrels head to its west coast, reflecting a strategic shift amid West Asia supply disruptions

Indian refiners, including Reliance Industries Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp and Indian Oil Corp have purchased a combined 343,000 barrels a day for loading in March

The cargoes were booked at premiums of $5 to $15 a barrel to Brent

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If global crude averages $110-115 per barrel in FY27, India's net oil imports could rise by $56-64 billion annually, worsening the current account deficit and fuelling inflation

Move comes months after President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on Indian goods in a bid to pressure Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government to abandon energy purchases from Russia

Indian refiners, wary of complicating trade talks with Washington, had pared back their purchases of Russian oil in recent weeks, which had forced Moscow to seek buyers in China

Hormuz blockade, surging oil prices may weigh on Indian markets

US and Israeli strikes that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have deepened open conflict with Iran and rattled West Asia, disrupting sea routes via Strait of Hormuz, fuelling oil price spike

Four years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Western measures to restrict Russian crude oil flows are beginning to have a real impact as the Trump administration steps up pressure on India

Russia will still be the country's biggest supplier this month if flows reach the top of Kpler's range at 1.2 million barrels a day, but shipments are set to drop even further