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With crude inventories sufficient to meet at least 10 days of requirements and fuel stocks covering another 5-7 days, India is unlikely to face any near-term disruption in oil supplies from the closure of the key supply route of the Strait of Hormuz, officials said. Even as rapidly unfolding developments, following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, including the reported killing of the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader, suggest the conflict may not last very long, New Delhi has contingency plans in place should tensions escalate, top officials and analysts said. Iran's state media said on February 28 that the Islamic Republic has shut the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints through which about a fifth of global oil and gas supplies transit - in response to US and Israeli missile strikes. The closure for a short duration will not have much impact on India as it already has supplies to meet fuel requirements, they said, adding that in the even
India's crude import strategy is entering a phase of calibrated rebalancing rather than abrupt realignment, with Middle Eastern suppliers led by Saudi Arabia regaining market share even as Russian volumes remain significant but increasingly shaped by geopolitics and compliance constraints, according to shipping data and analysts. During February 1-18, India's total crude imports averaged 4.85 million barrels per day (bpd), down 8 per cent from January's 5.25 million bpd, as flows from Russia cooled following US sanctions on key Russian exporters and the European Union's 18th sanctions package coming into effect last month. Ship tracking data showed Russian shipments to India declining from 1.28 million bpd in December 2025 to 1.22 million bpd in January and further to around 1.09 million bpd in early February, down about 10 per cent month-on-month. "Russian crude imports into India are estimated at around 1.0-1.2 million bpd in February, easing toward roughly 800,000 bpd to 1 millio