Brazil's Bolsonaro to face trial over coup plan; here's what happens next

A panel of Brazil Supreme Court justices unanimously ruled that former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven of his associates will stand trial on five counts, including attempting to stage a coup after the far-right leader lost the 2022 election.

The panel will review existing evidence, potentially gather new evidence and hear testimonies. Legal experts estimate that Bolsonaro could be sentenced to up to 40 years in prison, though his actual jail time if convicted would be less than that due to procedural considerations. 

Here's what to know about what will happen after Wednesday's ruling:  What charges does Bolsonaro face?  Bolsonaro will stand trial on the counts of attempting to stage a coup, involvement in an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, damage characterized by violence and a serious threat against the state's assets, and deterioration of listed heritage.

The five-justices panel of Brazil's Supreme Court ruled based on the indictment by Prosecutor-General, Paulo Gonet. His formal accusation came from a federal police investigation that placed Bolsonaro on the top of a criminal organization that had been active since at least 2021.

Gonet also accused Bolsonaro of supporting a plan that allegedly included poisoning his successor, current President Luiz Incio Lula da Silva, and killing Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes.

When does the trial start and what will happen?  While a specific trial date has not been set, the chairman of the Supreme Court panel is expected to outline the procedural framework in the coming days.

Elosa Machado, a law professor at the Fundacao Getulio Vargas university in Sao Paulo, explained that the evidentiary phase of the criminal case, which includes defendant interrogations, witness testimony and further procedures such as expert examinations, begins. Many of those procedures will be conducted by auxiliary judges.

Then, the rapporteur prepares a report and requests a trial date," Machado said. After this stage, prosecutors and defence attorneys will present their final arguments before the court rules on whether to acquit or convict."  Bolsonaro's defense team had requested the case to be sent to the full Supreme Court, not just on the 5-justice panel, which could drag a ruling into 2026 as all 11 justices would have their say on the case. The request was denied.

Who will judge Bolsonaro?  Brazil's top court is using one of its two permanent 5-justice panels to put Bolsonaro on trial. None of the five was appointed by Bolsonaro.

As rapporteur of the case, justice de Moraes brought the charges to the one he sits on.

The other four justices are Carmen Lucia, considered one of the harshest on criminal cases; Cristiano Zanin, the chairman of the panel and Lula's attorney between 2013 and 2023; Flvio Dino, appointed by the leftist president in 2023 after serving as his justice minister; and Luiz Fux, the court's chief-justice between 2020 and 2022, considered a moderate.

Will Bolsonaro go to jail?  Brazilian criminal law mandates that arrests occur only after a final, unappealable conviction.

The Supreme Court of Brazil, being the final appeals tribunal for criminal cases involving public authorities, possesses ultimate jurisdiction over Bolsonaro's case.

If the former president takes any action that hampers the court's ability to deliver its ruling, such as seeking shelter in an embassy, he could be arrested before the trial ends.

What has Bolsonaro said?  Bolsonaro, who has been banned from running for office until 2030 for abuse of power and undermining confidence in the country's voting system, has denied wrongdoing and claims he is the target of political persecution.

If I go to jail, I will give you a lot of work, Bolsonaro said after Wednesday's Supreme Court's decision.

Have other Brazilian presidents stood trial?  Lula was convicted of corruption and money laundering by low court judge Sergio Moro in 2017, and had his sentence later upheld by a group of magistrates. He served more than a year and seven months in prison and was released after the Supreme Court changed its jurisprudence to forbid jail time for any Brazilian until all appeals are exhausted.

In 2021, the same court annulled Lula's sentence as it found Moro to be biased. Moro left his position as a federal judge to become Bolsonaro's justice minister.

Michel Temer, who governed between 2016 and 2018 after Dilma Rousseff was impeached, was acquitted by a federal court in 2024 in a corruption and money laundering case. He was briefly arrested in 2019 under the accusation of profiting from fraudulent contracts between state-run Eletronuclear and companies AF Consult Ltd and Engevix during his time as vice president.

Fernando Collor, who governed between 1990 and his impeachment in 1992, was sentenced to eight years and ten months in jail in 2023 for his role in a corruption scheme at then state-run BR Distribuidora. The sentence was upheld by the Supreme Court last year, but Collor is yet to be imprisoned.

High-ranking military will be tried for the first time before the Supreme Court  The inclusion of high-ranking military officials to stand trial in Brazil's top court is unprecedented, as the country's transition from a military dictatorship to democracy in the 1980s was marked by a sweeping amnesty for military personnel.

Four high-ranking military officials who operated under Bolsonaro will stand trial. These are former Defence Minister Paulo Srgio Nogueira; former Navy commander Almir Garnier Santos; retired Gen. Augusto Heleno, who headed the Institutional Security Office; and retired Gen. Walter Braga Netto, who served as Bolsonaro's chief of staff and defence minister.

"Four-star generals accused of plotting a coup are now likely to be convicted and punished under Brazil's democratic legal system, said Joo Roberto Martins Filho, a political science professor at the Federal University of Sao Carlos and former president of the Brazilian Association of Defence Studies. Anyone who attempts a military-backed coup and fails could face consequences like what we're seeing now. They could end in prison.