How Trump made Mike Carney's Liberal Party win a lost election in Canada

Mark Carney leads Liberals to unexpected victory in Canada's 2025 election, overcoming poll deficit and fending off Donald Trump's interference on Canadian sovereignty

Canada Elections Results 2025 has delivered an unexpected result: the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, has retained power, defying months of predictions that had pointed to a Conservative victory. This outcome marks one of the most remarkable political turnarounds in recent Canadian history, with the Liberals overcoming a deficit of more than 20 points in the polls just four months ago.

 

Canada elections: How the tides changed

Resurgence of the Liberals began after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in January 2025, following years of declining popularity and mounting criticism over affordability and housing costs. The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, had been riding high, enjoying a commanding lead and capitalising on voter fatigue after nearly a decade of Liberal rule. 

However, the political landscape shifted dramatically with the entry of Mark Carney-a respected former central banker with a reputation for steady leadership-into the Liberal leadership race. Carney’s background, including his tenure as governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis and the Bank of England during Brexit, reassured voters seeking a steady hand amid economic uncertainty.   

 

  The most decisive factor, however, was the growing influence of US President Donald Trump on the Canadian campaign. Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canadian goods and repeated threats to annex Canada, making it the 51st state, stirred Canadian voters against perceived US interference. The Liberals seized on this moment, positioning themselves as the party best equipped to defend Canadian sovereignty and stand up to Trump’s aggressive rhetoric.

 

Trump’s unprecedented intervention

On election day, Donald Trump took to his social media platform to address Canadians directly, urging them to elect a leader who would “cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World,” and promising “ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st State of the United States of America.” He concluded, “It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!” 

“Good luck to the Great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World... QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America... It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!” Trump said on his Truth Social account.

 

Pierre Poilievre’s response

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre responded swiftly to Trump’s intervention, posting on social media: “President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box.”   

  Poilievre further emphasised that Canada would “NEVER be the 51st state” and called for Canadians to “stand independently, and confront America from a position of strength.”

 

The final poll results

As of Tuesday morning, the Liberals were leading or had been elected in 139 seats, with the Conservatives trailing at 107 seats, according to CBC projections. While it remains unclear whether the Liberals will secure a majority, their victory is already being hailed as a historic comeback, marking their fourth consecutive win. The final outcome may hinge on late results from British Columbia.

 

(With agency inputs)