China's 2024 GDP growth set to hit target of around 5%, says Xi Jinping

By Bloomberg News 

China’s gross domestic product is expected to expand around 5 per cent for the full year of 2024, President Xi Jinping said, signaling the world’s second-largest economy is on track to meet its official target. 

China’s economy was “overall stable and progressing amid stability,” Xi said at a new year event on Tuesday, according to a speech published by the official Xinhua News Agency. Risks in key areas were effectively addressed, while employment and prices remained steady, he said.

 

While a precise figure won’t be available until next month, the Chinese leader’s disclosure capped off a year of economic uncertainty, with the growth goal initially seen as a “target without a plan.” The outlook for 2024 improved after policymakers rolled out a slew of stimulus steps since late September, with economists now forecasting an expansion of 4.8 per cent this year.

 

Xi signaled that support for the economy will continue into 2025 during the New Year’s Eve remarks to the nation’s top political advisory body, reiterating a call to adopt more proactive macroeconomic policies.  

China is expected to set a 2025 growth target roughly similar to this year’s, as top leaders signaled earlier this month they’re willing to embrace more forceful stimulus measures. That would help the economy counter any impact from potential increases in US tariffs after President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House next month.

 

An official GDP growth target would only be revealed in March, when annual legislative sessions are held. Chinese leaders plan to set an annual growth goal of about 5 per cent for next year, Reuters reported earlier. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate 4.5 per cent growth in 2025.

 

Officials at key meetings in December pledged to use greater public borrowing and spending as well as monetary easing to spur growth in 2025, in an unusually direct call that sought to boost confidence. They endorsed the first shift in monetary policy stance in 14 years to a “moderately loose” one.

 

But the economy is still weighed by weak domestic demand and an uncertain outlook for exports, which has been a key growth driver this year. Deflation is likely to persist well into next year, while the property market is still slumping. 

 

Beijing’s initial stimulus next year is expected to fall short of the kind of radical action analysts believe is required to stem the downward spiral in prices, but officials may step up support later when growth falters just as they did this year.

 

Previously, Premier Li Qiang also revealed the nation’s growth rate ahead of an official announcement by the statistics bureau in a step to lift sentiment. He said the economy grew 5.2 per cent in 2023 in Davos last January, while highlighting the fact that China did not resort to massive stimulus.