H-1B visa programme: A policy shift under Donald Trump, Joe Biden

US President-elect Donald Trump recently weighed in to back Elon Musk's support for the H-1B visa programme. However, visa statistics during his presidency and beyond convey a different story.

 

The H-1B visa is a non-immigrant visa that allows US companies to employ foreign workers in specialty occupations requiring theoretical or technical expertise. Technology companies, in particular, rely heavily on the H-1B visa to hire tens of thousands of employees each year from countries like India and China.

 

While Indians constituted the highest share in the number of visas issued during both Trump and Joe Biden’s presidencies, the share of Indians receiving H-1B visas decreased from 72.1 per cent in FY17 to 69.93 per cent in FY19 under Trump. However, this figure rose to 75.66 per cent in FY20 during the pandemic. Under Biden's administration, the proportion of Indians receiving H-1B visas increased further to 80.71 per cent in FY22 and slightly dipped to 77.73 per cent in FY23. The total number of H-1B visas issued during Trump's presidency saw a marginal increase before crashing to roughly 125,000 during the pandemic.  

 

Additionally, India's share in approved petitions for H-1B visas witnessed a decline since Trump assumed office. More than 276,000 Indian petitions were approved in FY17, with India's share at 75.59 per cent of total approved petitions. This dropped to 71.7 per cent in FY19 before climbing back to 74.87 per cent during the pandemic, marking the highest share of approvals for Indians since 2017. Post-Covid, and during Biden's presidency, India's share in approved petitions fell from 74.09 per cent in FY21 to 72.32 per cent in FY23.

 

While data for denial rates by country is not provided, the overall denial rate of H-1B visas offers an insight into the differences between the two administrations. 

 

The denial rate for H-1B petitions peaked during Trump's presidency, reaching 24 per cent for initial employment petitions and 12 per cent for continuing employment petitions in FY18. Although the denial rate decreased in subsequent years, it remained relatively high. When Biden assumed office, the denial rate dropped dramatically to 3.7 per cent for initial employment and 2.3 per cent for continuing employment petitions in FY21. By FY23, the rate slightly dipped to 3.5 per cent for initial employment, while increased slightly to 2.4 per cent for continuing employment petitions.

 

For the 5.1 million Indian Americans comprising today’s diaspora in the US, the nation serves as the backdrop against which hopes, dreams, and aspirations take shape. A report titled “Small Community, Big Contributions, Boundless Horizon” offers an insightful assessment of the measurable impact of the Indian diaspora in the US. 

 

Despite making up only 1.5 per cent of the US population, the Indian diaspora has emerged as a powerful economic force. According to the report, Indian Americans contribute approximately 5-6 per cent — roughly $300 billion — in federal tax revenues annually. Beyond taxes, their annual spending ranges between $370 billion and $460 billion, driving significant economic activity through sales taxes, business investments, and employment generation.

 

Moreover, Indian diaspora members are also contributing significantly to the US education system. Approximately 270,000 students from India pursued graduate and undergraduate degrees in US universities. This cohort represents about 25 per cent of the international student population in the US and accounts for roughly 1.5 per cent of the total student population.

 

These contributions not only highlight the community's economic strength but also emphasize their essential role in shaping America's social and financial progress.