Decoded: How Iran and Israel's decades-old conflict exploded into war

Iran's nuclear programme has long been at the centre of Israeli fears, with Tehran's enrichment advances seen by Israel as an existential threat

On Friday (June 13), Israel launched what it described as “preemptive strikes” on Iran, hitting military installations and a nuclear facility. The move came shortly after US President Donald Trump cautioned about the threat of a “massive conflict” in the region.

State television in Iran reported loud explosions in Tehran early Friday and said the country’s air defence systems were operating at full capacity.

Israel, meanwhile, announced a state of emergency. Defence Minister Israel Katz indicated that Tehran could respond forcefully, warning of imminent retaliation.

“In light of Israel’s preemptive action against Iran, we anticipate a missile and drone offensive targeting Israel and its civilian population in the near term,” Katz said.

Global oil markets reacted sharply, with prices climbing up to 6 per cent amid escalating tensions and a partial evacuation of US personnel in the region, following Trump’s earlier remarks about potential Iranian aggression.

Tensions have surged since the breakdown of nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran. US President Donald Trump has reaffirmed his hardline stance, declaring that Iran would not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. “Very simple. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. We’re not going to allow that,” he said, adding that US troops are being repositioned away from parts of the Middle East “because it could be a dangerous place.”

 

Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile nears weapons-grade threshold

 

The trigger behind this rising tension lies in Iran’s growing nuclear stockpile. According to a recent estimate by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran now holds over 408 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60 per cent purity, dangerously close to the 90 per cent threshold required for a nuclear weapon. That’s a nearly 50 per cent increase from earlier this year. The time it would take Iran to “break out” and build a bomb is shrinking rapidly.

 

Tracing the historical roots of Iran-Israel hostility

 

Iran and Israel weren’t always enemies. In fact, prior to 1979, the two countries maintained close ties. Iran was one of the first Muslim-majority nations to recognise Israel after its founding in 1948. Under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran and Israel enjoyed diplomatic, economic, and military ties. Both nations viewed Arab nationalism as a mutual threat, and Israel considered Iran a key strategic ally on the periphery of the Arab world.

 

But this cooperation snapped after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The new regime in Tehran cut all ties with Israel, transferred the Israeli embassy to the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), and declared Israel an enemy of Islam. Ayatollah Khomeini’s regime began openly supporting anti-Israel militant groups, shifting the nature of the conflict from political rivalry to ideological confrontation.

 

Iran’s proxy network intensifies regional warfare against Israel

 

Since then, Iran has supported and armed groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Islamic Jihad Movement in the Palestinian territories. This network of proxies has conducted many wars against Israel, including those in Lebanon and several Gaza conflicts from 2008 to 2024. Iran has also provided support to groups in Syria and Yemen over the years, designed to counter Israel and attack its interests.

 

How close is Iran to developing a nuclear weapon?

 

Iran’s nuclear programme has always been at the heart of Israeli fears. Israel has long considered Iran’s nuclear ambition an existential threat. Over the years, it has launched covert operations to sabotage Iran’s programme, including the infamous Stuxnet cyberattack and the assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists. These efforts have slowed but not stopped Iran’s progress. Once Iran crosses the 90 per cent enrichment mark, experts warn it could produce a nuclear weapon within weeks—a scenario Israel says it will not allow.

 

Where are the modern flashpoints in the Iran-Israel conflict?

 

The conflict has played out across multiple theatres in West Asia. Lebanon remains a critical front. Iran’s most powerful proxy, Hezbollah, is based there and has fought major wars with Israel, including the 2006 conflict. Hezbollah is believed to possess over 100,000 rockets aimed at Israeli cities.

 

In Gaza, Iran funds and supports both Hamas and the Islamic Jihad Movement. Despite the Shia-Sunni divide, their shared hostility towards Israel unites them. Syria is another major flashpoint. Iran maintains a strong military presence there and uses the territory to transfer weapons to Hezbollah. Israel frequently launches airstrikes on Iranian assets and supply routes in Syria.

 

Recently, Iraq has emerged as a new front. Iranian-backed militias there have carried out drone attacks on Israeli targets. In 2024, after Israel bombed an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Iran and its proxies launched a large-scale drone and missile barrage. Though most were intercepted with US and European assistance, Israel responded with strikes inside Iran and Syria. Both sides then pulled back to avoid a wider regional war.

 

Who supports Iran and Israel in this regional power struggle?

 

Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” includes state and non-state actors such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its elite Quds Force, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Islamic Jihad Movement, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and various Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria. Iran also supports smaller militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

 

Israel, meanwhile, is firmly backed by the United States. Washington provides billions in military aid, advanced defence systems like Iron Dome, and intelligence support. US forces also target Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq. Western allies, including the UK, Germany, and Italy, assist diplomatically and through missile defence cooperation.

 

While not formal military allies, several Sunni Arab states share Israel’s concerns. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt have deepened ties with Israel since the 2020 Abraham Accords. The Palestinian Authority in the West Bank remains ideologically opposed to Israel but occasionally coordinates security efforts against Hamas.

 

Why is Iraq becoming a critical theatre in this confrontation?

 

Iraq now serves as a launchpad for Iranian-aligned militias and a proxy battleground. Groups like Kata’ib Hezbollah under the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” banner have claimed attacks on Israeli military assets. These militias allow Iran to strike Israel indirectly while avoiding direct confrontation.

 

Geographically, Iraq’s proximity to Israel makes it strategically significant for weapons transfers and strikes. However, the Iraqi government under Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani is under pressure to control these groups, fearing that Israeli retaliation could further destabilise the country.

 

The US military presence in Iraq—currently around 2,500 troops—acts as a deterrent. But Washington’s plan to withdraw by 2026 could reduce Iraq’s resistance to Iranian pressure and shift the balance of power further.

 

Are the conditions now set for full-scale regional war?

 

With nuclear breakout potential, active proxy networks, and direct military exchanges, the Iran-Israel conflict is dangerously close to escalation. Iraq’s emergence as a proxy front, growing Hezbollah stockpiles, increased Western involvement, and failed diplomacy are all converging.

 

Whether this leads to an all-out war or a prolonged cycle of strikes and retaliation depends on the decisions made in the coming weeks—both in Jerusalem and Tehran, and in capitals far beyond.