Trump 2.0: First Quad foreign ministers' meeting likely on Tuesday

Discussion on the upcoming Quad Leaders' Summit in India on S Jaishankar's agenda

A day after Donald Trump took charge as the 47th President of the United States, his Secretary of State pick Marco Rubio may sit down with External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar, and their ministerial counterparts from Japan and Australia on Tuesday. The EAM is expected to discuss the dates for the fifth Quad leaders’ summit in India later this year, sources said.

 

While an official confirmation is awaited from all sides, an informal meeting of the four Quad foreign ministers has been signalled by both the US and India. The informal meeting is not expected to go into specifics, considering Rubio is yet to be confirmed into his new position by the US Senate. On Monday, Jaishankar held meetings with his counterparts from Australia and Japan.

 

Revived by a Trump-led US in 2017, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) grouping is more strategically aligned than ever before and is delivering enduring impact for the Indo-Pacific, a joint declaration by the nations had claimed after the Leaders’ Summit in Delaware in the US in September last year.

 

As a result, experts believe the President will keep his focus on Quad in his second stint. "We have to remember our recent history. Quad got the first fillip under President Trump when the first meeting of the foreign ministers of Quad nations took place. Once the new administration settles down, they will start work on strengthening the partnership," Rajiv Bhatia, a former ambassador and distinguished fellow at Gateway House pointed out.

 

In his second term, Trump would likely maintain his preference for more transactional and bilateral engagements, as seen during his first term, experts believe. While he did support the Quad as a strategic counter to China's growing influence, Trump's broader foreign policy was often focused on “America First”, with less emphasis on institutionalised multilateral cooperation.

 

Going forward

 

Ensuring the Quad grouping continues its technology partnerships to build resilient and secure supply chains under Trump, especially for semiconductors, telecommunications, and other critical technologies, remains a primary focus for India. New areas of cooperation opened up under President Joe Biden — such as the US-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) framework — will remain a key facet of bilateral relations, Bhatia said. Trump may seek to give his own touch to the framework, which has been a brainchild of the Biden administration.

 

In 2022, Biden launched the 14-nation Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) bloc that aims to keep supply chains free of disruptions and frame trade rules, including for data localisation, e-commerce, and labour standards. Experts remain divided over whether Trump, known for his isolationist rhetoric, would continue to support the initiative.

 

In the realm of defence, the Quad has expanded the security partnership among the nations through a myriad military and naval exercises, high profile visits, and consolidation of operation in the Indo-Pacific region.

 

Going forward, an initiative bringing together the coast guards of member nations for conducting joint operations is expected to go live this year. A new regional Maritime Initiative for Training in the Indo-Pacific (MAITRI), to enable maximisation of monitoring the waters, is also set to begin. India will host the inaugural MAITRI workshop in 2025. 

Expanding security ties: Quad Under Trump

 

> Donald Trump, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his Australian counterpart Malcolm Turnbull, and then Japanese PM Shinzo Abe agreed to revive the Quad partnership during the 2017 Asean Summits in Manila. Trump announced the vision of Free and Open Indo-Pacific

> US conducted trilateral military exercise with Japan and India in the Pacific Ocean in 2018

> US and Japan participated in India’s Malabar naval exercises the following year

 

Institutionalising via initiatives under Biden

 

> First Quad meeting held virtually amid Covid-19, two months after Biden took over in Jan 2021

> Working groups on cybersecurity, critical and emerging technologies, climate change, and supply chain resilience established

> Trilateral Supply Chain Resilience Initiative launched to reduce dependency on China

> Quad Vaccine Partnership announced to deliver 1 billion doses of Covid vaccines to Indo-Pacific nations, to counter China's move

 

Way ahead: Focus for India

 

> Ramping up security ties, intelligence sharing, developing interoperable defence technologies

 

> Collaborating on critical and emerging technologies, especially in AI and cybersecurity

 

> Enhancing maritime domain awareness, conducting joint naval exercises, upholding international maritime laws

 

Jaishankar discusses ties with Quad partners Japan, Australia   External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Sunday held meetings with his counterparts from Australia and Japan in Washington during which they discussed bilateral issues and those pertaining to Quad. "Delighted to meet FM @SenatorWong, a Quad colleague, in Washington DC today. As always, enjoyed our discussion on the state of the world," Jaishankar posted on X. "Good to meet with FM Takeshi Iwaya of Japan. Reviewed the progress in our bilateral cooperation," he said in another post. PTI