Trump tariffs: Apple iPhone 16 Pro prices in US could go up by nearly 30%

Prices of the Apple iPhone 16 Pro in the US could climb by around 30 per cent on average, driven by tariff hikes of 54 per cent on China and 26 per cent on India, according to analysts tracking the smartphone industry.

 

If the US follows through with an additional 50 per cent duty — after China refused to roll back its retaliatory tariffs — the total levy would jump to 104 per cent. In that scenario, prices could rise by 50–60 per cent, they said.

 

“The price increase will depend on where a device is assembled,” said Tarun Pathak, research director at Counterpoint Research. “Brazil, for instance, has the lowest tariff at 10 per cent but cannot take on additional volumes. Based on current dynamics, a 30 per cent hike is a realistic estimate. That would push a $1,000 iPhone 16 Pro to about $1,300.” Counterpoint is still working out the impact of the steeper China tariff on final prices.

 

At a 104 per cent duty level, the iPhone 16 Pro could end up costing $1,500–1,600, according to industry estimates.

 

However, Pathak points out that pricing decisions aren’t that straightforward. Apple might choose to absorb some of the cost increase, and any price revision won’t be immediate, since the company has stockpiled inventory for the next few months.

 

He also points out that Apple could stick to a common global base price (excluding local taxes and tariffs), spreading the US price hike across other markets to reduce pressure in its largest one. A sharp jump in prices could dent demand in the US, something the Cupertino-based company would want to avoid.

 

Despite India’s growing share in iPhone exports, most units are still assembled in China, which benefits from a deeply entrenched supply chain built over decades. In India, the iPhone already costs about 20 per cent more than in China due to cost disadvantages, though incentives under the production-linked incentive scheme have narrowed the gap. A wider tariff differential could make India a more appealing alternative to China — but the shift won’t happen overnight.