Ukrainian troops near the front doubt Russia pact will bring lasting peace

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Moving between damp basements and muddy dugouts to fend off constant Russian attacks in the nearly 4-year-old war, exhausted Ukrainian soldiers say their motivation is fortified by knowing they're fighting for higher cause: the defense of their homeland.

But as negotiators try to hammer out a peace deal, the troops also believe that Russia remains determined to conquer Ukraine either now, or with a fresh army in a few years' time no matter what kind of agreement is reached.

And they also say Kyiv must maintain a sizable military to protect the now-800-mile (nearly 1,300-kilometer) front line.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are now the main barrier between peaceful civilian life of Ukrainians and our bad neighbour, said a 40-year-old artillery gunner who spoke to The Associated Press near the border between the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions. He identified himself only by his call sign of Kelt," in keeping with military protocol, and on condition his exact location is not revealed.

The soldiers expressed strong doubts that Moscow can be trusted to abide by any peace deal. Without substantial security guarantees, such as NATO membership for Ukraine, they and military analysts believe a new Russian invasion with fresh troops and equipment is inevitable.

Seeing future Russian threats  From a dark, mud-walled trench, where he was sheltering to avoid buzzing enemy drones, Kelt fears any peace will be short-lived.

This truce will be short-term, to restore Russia's forces for some three or five years and they will come back, said the former furniture salesman from Kyiv as the sound of booming artillery reverberated around him.

Serhii Filimonov, the commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion, worried that a deal would give Russia everything it needed to attack again.

I think it would be nice for the Russians -- to end the war, remove the sanctions, prepare for a new war and attack again, he said. "I don't believe there can be peace before Russia is destroyed, or at least the leadership is changed.

Ukraine's overstretched manpower  Filimonov described how Russian troops had briefly entered the eastern town of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in the Donetsk region, but were pushed out. His brigade had managed to hold its stretch of the defensive line but were often let down by neighboring units filled with inexperienced recruits.

The Kremlin on Monday boasted that Russian troops captured the city after more than a year of fighting, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in Paris that fighting was still ongoing.

A major breakthrough by Russian forces will depend on Ukraine's ability to increase and sustain its troop numbers, said American military analyst and academic Rob Lee.

Ukraine lacks manpower, lacks reserves, he said. All it takes is for one Ukrainian brigade to really struggle, and then Russia can advance."  Taras Chmut, a Ukrainian military expert and fundraiser, told public broadcaster Suspilne on Friday that many battalions on the front are made up of only 20 fighters, instead of the usual 400-800.

Even though Ukraine may be mobilizing up to 30,000 recruits per month, many of them find a way out of serving or prove to be unfit to replace front-line troops.

Key sites are still being held  Nevertheless, Ukrainian forces are managing to hold their ground in places like Pokrovsk, as well as in Kupiansk and Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region two sites on the front that Russia has been trying to capture for over a year, said Yurii Fedorenko commander of the Achilles UAV Brigade that is fighting in the area.

Russia has poured tens of thousands of soldiers at the towns, he said, noting that its failure to capture them "testifies to the high motivation and resilience of the Ukrainian army.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week the fighting won't stop unless Ukraine withdraws troops from the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson the four provinces Moscow illegally annexed in September 2022. Russian troops occupy only half of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and two-thirds of Donetsk.

The draft of a US-Russia peace plan stipulated that Ukraine's army be limited and that Kyiv's forces must effectively withdraw from the rest of the Donetsk region. Zelenskyy has said since then that a subsequently revised version could be workable, but it's unclear what will be in the final document.

Lee, who regularly visits the front, said Russia is advancing at a faster pace in 2025 than the previous year, but it is not a given that Moscow would capture the remaining third of the Donetsk region in 2026.

Wherever Russia advances, Ukraine kind of prioritizes defences (and) they can hold for a long time, but (then) Russia advanced in other directions, Lee said, describing Moscow's progress through Donetsk by simultaneously pushing in multiple directions.

Ukraine will still need Western aid  From his muddy trench, Kelt ridiculed the proposal to reduce the size of Ukraine's military, saying it was tantamount to making it easier for Russia to kill you" later rather than now.

But sustaining an army of Ukraine's current size of just over 1 million would be nearly impossible without continued Western support. Since the war began in 2022, Ukraine has spent almost all its tax revenue on feeding, clothing, housing and arming its military. The rest of its expenditures for health care, social programs, education, pensions and energy have been financed by Western grants and loans.

The European Union allocated $50 billion in aid from 2024 to 2027 as part of the Ukraine Facility Program, but Kyiv will need $83.4 billion for the military and $52 billion for the rest of the state expenditures for 2026 and 2027, said Glib Buriak, associate professor of economics at the Ukrainian-American Concordia University.

Ukraine's future finances including its ability to maintain an army depends on what the peace plan includes regarding Russia's frozen assets, said Buriak, noting the risk of a drop in aid if the war ends.

"How they will be managed will determine Ukraine's financial situation over the coming years, he said.