US likely to increase coal exports to India due to trade war with China

'Three US cargoes that were supposed to go to China have landed in India and around 10 more cargoes are waiting,' Vasudev Pamnani, director at India's I-Energy Natural Resources, said

The United States is expected to boost coal exports to India after China imposed tariffs on energy imports from the US, five industry officials said, potentially eroding Australia and Russia's market shares in the Indian market.

China's Finance Ministry last week said it would impose levies of 15 per cent on imports of US coal, which the officials said could push US miners to ship to India - the world's second-largest coal importer behind China.

"Three US cargoes that were supposed to go to China have landed in India and around 10 more cargoes are waiting. These are huge capesizes and that could further drag down prices," Vasudev Pamnani, director at India's I-Energy Natural Resources, said.

"More US coal imports could have an impact on Australia," Pamnani told the Coaltrans India conference on Monday.

In volume terms, the US accounts for a small part of Chinese imports of coal, but the value of coking coal shipments - used mainly by steelmakers - rose by nearly a third to $1.84 billion in 2024.

Malcolm Roberts, chief marketing officer at the biggest US coal miner Peabody Energy, said on a conference call with analysts last week that more US coal could go to India and more Australian coal to China as a result of the tariffs.

Australia was the dominant coking coal supplier to India in the last decade, accounting for about 80 per cent of all such shipments. Its share dwindled to 62 per cent in 2024, as supplies from the United States as well as Russia and Mozambique helped India to diversify.

Australia could now regain some share in China - its main market where it made up over two-thirds of coking coal imports before China announced an unofficial ban on such imports in 2021. Mongolia and Russia are currently the biggest exporters of coking coal to China.

The US accounted for 9 per cent of the coking coal market in China in 2024, while Australia made up 8 per cent of all such imports, Chinese customs data shows.