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Economic Survey: Cautious & optimistic, CEA sees India beating China growth

Economic Survey 2018 is a flagship annual document of the Finance Ministry that reviews the overall state of the economy

BS Web Team  |  New Delhi 

The Economic Survey 2017-18, tabled in Parliament on Monday, forecasts gross domestic product growth for 2018-19 at 7-7.5 per cent, compared with a forecast of 6.75 per cent in the current fiscal year. “A series of major reforms undertaken over the past year will allow real GDP growth to reach 6.75 percent this fiscal and will rise to 7.0 to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19, thereby re-instating India as the world‘s fastest growing major economy,” an official statement said, after the tabling of the survey, adding that “the reform measures undertaken in 2017-18 can ...

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Economic Survey: Cautious & optimistic, CEA sees India beating China growth

Vigilance required against a likely stock market bubble: Economic Survey     The Economic Survey 2017-18 called for a vigil against a likely stock market bubble and that "sustaining" the current high valuations require "future earnings" to meet high expectations.     According to Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian, past examples have shown that asset prices have a tendency to pull-back after they rise sharply.     "The higher the prices go, I think our vigilance should increase correspondingly," Subramanian said.

Economic Survey: Cautious & optimistic, CEA sees India beating China growth

Highlights of Economic Survey 2018

Economic Survey: Cautious & optimistic, CEA sees India beating China growth

Judicial reforms next frontier to improve World Bank's Ease of Doing Business ranking, says Economic Survey   Even as India jumped 30 places to break into the top 100 countries on ease of doing business for the first time, the next frontier is addressing pendency, delays and backlogs in the appellate and judicial arenas, according to the Economic Survey for 2017-18.   It added that India's ranking would get a further boost by the implementation of GST, which was not taken account of in this year's report.   According to the Economic Survey 2017-18, the judicial pendency, delays and backlogs were hampering dispute resolution and contract enforcement, discouraging investment, stalling projects and hampering tax collections.   The Survey report said they were also stressing taxpayers and escalating legal costs.

Economic Survey: Cautious & optimistic, CEA sees India beating China growth

Economic Survey more optimistic than what was projected last year, says NITI Aayog VC Rajiv Kumar Kumar said growth prediction of 7-7.5 per cent as per the survey is definitely achievable.   "GST has been largely beneficial; and now, with the introduction of the e-way bill, tax collections will be made more seamless," he said.   Kumar said that he expected Budget 2018-19 to focus on solving health and education-related problems of the common man and the adoption of a holistic approach to doubling farmers' income.

Economic Survey: Cautious & optimistic, CEA sees India beating China growth

Economic Survey testifies Modi government's economic mismanagement, says Congress   The Economic Survey has affirmed "utter mismanagement" of India's economy by the Narendra Modi government in the last four years, the Congress said on Monday, after the Economic Survey 2017-18 was tabled in Parliament.   "The GDP growth is down, agriculture is in utter disarray, rural wages are declining, industrial growth is plunging, job creation figures are invisible, fresh Investment is low, education and health spending is in crises and 'Make in India' is floundering," Congress spokesman Randeep Singh Surjewala said. "By the Economic Survey's own admission, the informal sector has been severely impacted thanks to demonetisation and flawed GST," Surjewala said.

Economic Survey: Cautious & optimistic, CEA sees India beating China growth

Economic Survey gives no proof to support growth claims, says P Chidambaram   Picking holes in the growth projections made by the Economic Survey, senior Congress leader and former Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said the Survey offered "little evidence" in support of its claims and added that the fiscal is likely to end with a growth rate of "between 6 and 6.5 per cent".   Calling the Survey as a "refreshingly candid document that has brought to surface internal contradictions within the government", Chidambaram pointed out that as per the document, the future course of economy is conditional on many "ifs".

Economic Survey: Cautious & optimistic, CEA sees India beating China growth

Make in India 2.0 to focus on these ten key sectors   Make in India 2.0 will accord renewed focus on ten champion sectors, including capital goods, auto, defence, pharma and renewable energy to push growth in manufacturing and generate job opportunities, the Economic Survey said.   The other sectors are biotechnology, chemicals, electronic system design and manufacturing, leather, textiles, food processing, gems & jewellery, construction, shipping, and railways.

Economic Survey: Cautious & optimistic, CEA sees India beating China growth

Budget 2018: Avoid ambitious fiscal deficit targets, says Economic Survey   Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian and his team did not rule out a Union fiscal deficit wider than the targeted 3.2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) for the current financial year (FY18).      Ahead of the Budget for 2018-19, the Economic Survey for 2017-18 said that ambitious targets of fiscal consolidation for the coming pre-election year be avoided. Does that mean the target of 3.2 per cent for the next year, given in the medium-term fiscal policy statement, is ambitious? The Survey did not go into that.

Economic Survey: Cautious & optimistic, CEA sees India beating China growth

Growth back on track; 50% rise in indirect taxpayers under GST, writes Mihir Sharma The Survey estimated that the fading of shocks to economic activity like demonetisation together with a recovery in global demand and some domestic policy actions would raise growth in the coming financial year to 7-7.5 per cent.    However, there are aspects to the analysis of the ongoing financial year that suggest the Survey has taken an optimistic view of growth.      It admitted that in 2017-18, “fiscal deficits, the current account, and inflation were all higher than expected”. Manufacturing was still struggling, with the ration of factory exports to GDP declining, along with the manufacturing trade balance. And agriculture has not seen an increase in real value added for four years. 

Economic Survey: Cautious & optimistic, CEA sees India beating China growth

Claims worth Rs 3.13 trillion under insolvency proceedings   The Economic Survey 2018 said that of the 11 companies under the Corporate Insolvency Resolution Process (CIRP), most are either seeking an extension or have already been granted additional time.   In June last year, the Reserve Bank had identified 12 accounts, each having more than Rs 50 billion of outstanding loans accounting for 25 per cent of total NPAs or bad loans of banks, for immediate referral for resolution under the bankruptcy law.

Economic Survey: Cautious & optimistic, CEA sees India beating China growth

Another point in #EconomicSurvey is spread of tax net in indirect tax side & also the collections in direct tax side which has gone up.These are strong outcomes. Stabilisation of GST as said in #EconomicSurvey is extremely important: Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General, CII pic.twitter.com/shKDEw8pCS — ANI (@ANI) January 29, 2018

First Published: Mon, January 29 2018. 22:13 IST
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Economic Survey: Cautious & optimistic, CEA sees India beating China growth

Economic Survey 2018 is a flagship annual document of the Finance Ministry that reviews the overall state of the economy

The Economic Survey 2017-18, tabled in Parliament on Monday, forecasts gross domestic product growth for 2018-19 at 7-7.5 per cent, compared with a forecast of 6.75 per cent in the current fiscal year. “A series of major reforms undertaken over the past year will allow real GDP growth to reach 6.75 percent this fiscal and will rise to 7.0 to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19, thereby re-instating India as the world‘s fastest growing major economy,” an official statement said, after the tabling of the survey, adding that “the reform measures undertaken in 2017-18 can ...

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