Wes Asia crisis: India bulks up Russia oil; US allows 30-day waiver

Now at a premium, Russian crude imports surge after start of war in West Asia

The United States has issued a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian oil refiners to purchase Russian crude currently stranded at sea, as a short-term measure to keep supplies flowing amid disruptions caused by the ongoing Iran war.

 

The American waiver comes even as India’s imports of Russian crude surged to 1.37 million barrels per day (mbpd) in the first six days of March, about 30 per cent higher than the 1.04 mbpd imported from Russia during the whole of February 2026, according to fresh data from trade intelligence firm Kpler.

 

The waiver expires on April 4, 2026, according to an order issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury Department. “To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement posted on social media platform X on Friday.

 

Indian refiners have so far lifted only non-sanctioned Russian cargoes, as the US order does not clarify whether the waiver also permits the import of sanctioned oil, according to two people familiar with the development. “The legal teams of oil companies are currently vetting the order to gain a clearer understanding of the matter,” a government official said.

 

In November 2025, the US sanctioned two major Russian oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, which accounted for 60 per cent of Moscow’s crude supplies to India. Indian refiners have not bought crude from the sanctioned entities since then.

 

Discounts on Russian oil, which were around $10 a barrel before the crisis in West Asia, have completely eroded and are now being offered at a premium to Indian refiners, the official added. Despite pressure from Western countries, Russia remained India’s top crude supplier in February as Indian refiners bought 1.04 mbpd during the month. 

 

The short-term US measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government because it authorises transactions only for oil already stranded at sea, Bessent said. “India is an essential partner of the United States, and we fully anticipate that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of US oil. This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage,” he added.

 

Experts say the waiver, along with the ongoing clearing of stranded oil cargoes at sea, could push India’s imports of Russian crude to as much as 2 mbpd in the near term, a level last seen in June 2025. “With the waiver now in place, Indian refiners could quickly resume purchases, potentially pushing Russian inflows to around 1.6 to 2 mbpd in the near term. While this provides a short-term logistical buffer, it cannot fully offset India’s 2.6 mbpd exposure to West Asian crude, and competition from Chinese buyers for the Russian barrels will limit the upside,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst at Kpler. 

 

As of early March, about 130 million barrels of Russian crude were floating at sea, including significant volumes across the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, the Suez shipping routes and waters around Singapore. These cargoes could potentially be redirected to Indian ports if commercial deals are finalised.

 

With nearly half of India’s crude imports transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, the country remains highly exposed to potential supply disruptions. The US waiver allowing additional purchases of Russian crude therefore offers only short-term relief, Ritolia said.

 

“Indian refiners had already been importing around 1 mbpd of Russian crude in recent months, meaning the waiver effectively acts as a green signal to lift volumes above this base load, particularly for cargoes currently delayed along key shipping routes,” he said. Renewed access to Russian crude would support feedstock security and refining margins, although there has been no indication of product export curbs from the government, he added.

 

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the war involving Iran had fuelled demand for Russian energy products and that buyers such as China and India were guided by their national interests, according to Reuters.