GDP vagaries in election years: There are valid explanations for variations

But, in an election year, questions will be raised whether non-economic factors are at play

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, released last week, surprised most analysts.

The economy grew at 8.4 per cent in the third quarter (October-December) — a six-quarter high — and the second advance estimate (SAE) for 2023-24 placed GDP growth at 7.6 per cent, up sharply from the first advance estimate (FAE) of 7.3 per cent.
 

The primary reason for the increase in the SAE for 2023-24 was a downward revision in the GDP growth for 2022-23, from 7.2 per cent to 7 per cent. The spurt in net indirect tax collections, too, must have boosted not just the October-December