BJP's alliance bind in Andhra Pradesh complicates long-term growth strategy

With the two most powerful political forces falling over each other to support it in Andhra Pradesh, the BJP gains and loses at the same time

In Andhra Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing an embarrassment of riches. The ruling Telugu Desam Party (TDP), led by Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu, is a vocal member of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and, barring carefully nuanced criticism of the Special Intensive Review (SIR) of the electoral roll, has backed his ally, the BJP, on all other issues. This is not surprising, considering it has two members in the Union council of ministers. Mr Naidu fiercely defended the Constitution 131st Amendment Bill, criticising the Opposition bitterly for defeating it. His voice had more value for the BJP than other allies because Andhra Pradesh emerged as the only state in the south to challenge the proposition that southern states had more to lose by delimitation than northern Indian states.

 

But he was not the only one. Jagan Mohan Reddy, leader of the YSR Congress and a sworn rival of Mr Naidu in the state, also attacked the Opposition on the Bill, backing the BJP. Mr Reddy has targeted the TDP and Mr Naidu, almost never the BJP, especially since the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Glib explanations like the pending cases of the Enforcement Directorate alone do not explain his politics.

 

With the two most powerful political forces falling over each other to support it, the BJP gains and loses at the same time.

 

Despite its best efforts, the BJP’s vote share in the state’s Assembly polls has stayed in single digits. In 2014, its vote share in Lok Sabha constituencies was 7.22 per cent. In 2019, this dropped to about 0.98 per cent. In the 2014 Assembly elections, it was 4.13 per cent and this dropped to 0.84 per cent in 2019.  The party recovered in 2024, getting 11.2 per cent in the Lok Sabha polls but stayed at 2.83 per cent in the Assembly (since 1999, Lok Sabha and Assembly elections are being held simultaneously in the state).

 

In its wisdom, the party thought the problem lay in the leadership of its state unit. Last year, appearing to make a strategic choice, it appointed P V N Madhav as state president, replacing D Purandeswari. She had done just two years as state chief but many thought she was constrained by family and caste connections (her sister is married to Mr Naidu). Mr Madhav, by contrast, belongs to the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), is of Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) stock, and has been with the Rashtriya Swaymsevak Sangh throughout his political career. His task was to grow the BJP in the state without alienating the TDP so that the BJP has a respectable presence in the state by 2029, when Assembly elections are to be held next.

 

This was like stepping on eggs. The BJP cannot align with the YSR Congress. Mr Reddy’s Christian connections are a complication although it seems to have no problem in accepting his tactical support.

 

But Andhra Pradesh has a 10 per cent Muslim population, which can significantly affect prospects in specific constituencies in Guntur, Krishna, and Nellore districts, and the Rayalaseema region. Mr Naidu is acutely aware of this and during the election campaign, he sought to reassure the Muslims their interests would not be hurt by the alliance with the BJP. He promised many initiatives for the community if the coalition came to power, such as a Haj subsidy, ₹5,000 every month for mosque maintenance, and the Dulhan scheme, which promised ₹1 lakh to Muslim brides. He also vowed retaining the 4 per cent reservation for the Muslims (carved out of the OBC quota).

 

The BJP didn’t like it but it couldn’t say a thing. In neighbouring Telangana during the campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a speech: “As long as Modi is alive, I will not let reservations of Dalits, Adivasis, OBCs to be given to Muslims on the basis of religion.” But not in Andhra Pradesh.

 

The net result is the party has had to reduce its raison d’etre to motherhood and apple pie causes. For example, to celebrate 75 years of its foundation earlier this month, the party launched an outreach campaign called “Mana Ooru-Mana Jenda”, basically to tell people about the Centre’s initiatives for the state. The man leading the charge on corruption in the state, especially around the real-estate deals in the development of Amaravati, is Jagan Mohan Reddy.

 

Many in the BJP feel being a partner in a ruling alliance in a state is always at the cost of the party’s growth, whether in Odisha, when it was with the Biju Janata Dal, or in Punjab, where it was with the Shiromani Akali Dal. Constrained by the compulsion to play nice with the government, the party has to reduce itself to a whey-faced presence with the ruling party having the political whip hand. It hasn’t been able to break out of the straitjacket so far. But eventually it might be forced to if it wants to get anywhere in Andhra Pradesh.