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Rate cut? Status quo likely in Aug monetary policy despite inflation dip

RBI set to lower inflation projection, but GDP growth estimate and policy stance may remain unchanged

REPO RATE, RBI
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CPI inflation dropped to its 77-month low of 2.1 per cent in June. In July, it is set to dip further, below 2 per cent.

Tamal Bandyopadhyay
Indian central bank’s rate-setting body, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), will hold its third bi-monthly meeting of the current financial year between August 4 and 6. There’s consensus among economists and market watchers on two critical aspects of the August monetary policy.
 
One, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will pare its inflation estimate for the year, and two, the growth estimate will remain unchanged.
 
In the June policy, the RBI had projected the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation rate for financial year 2025-26 (FY26) at 3.7 per cent, lowering its April projection of 4 per cent.
 
CPI inflation dropped
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