Datanomics: South fears delimitation punishment for population control

At stake is fears by southern states that they will lose Lok Sabha seats if delimitation is based on the new census

Last week, the Centre issued a notification regarding the next population Census, scheduled for 2027. A few days before that, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu reignited the debate on the criteria for delimitation. This has sparked rumours that southern states will lose Lok Sabha seats if delimitation is based on the Census. This also comes after data shows that southern states have managed their population better than northern counterparts.

 

People represented by each MP (in mn)

 

Lok Sabha seats and their distribution among states have been frozen since 1971. Disparity in voter representation between south and north grew – population represented by each MP in south has not grown in tandem with the north 

 

Note: North India is taken in political context, not geographical, and includes Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh, whereas South includes Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala *Population is based on projections by technical group on population projections. Representation is on the assumption that total seats of each state remain same. 

 

Change in seats for 2027

 

Based on population trends, northern states are likely to gain 37 seats, while southern states may lose 25 seats in 2027 if the number of MP seats remains the same and is distributed among states based on the next Census.   

 

Representation in Lok Sabha in 2027 (%)

 

Representation of north in the LS will rise by six percentage points in the next delimitation on the assumptions cited above 

 

Note: Changes are based on the assumption that the total Lok Sabha seats remain the same, and each MP represents the same number of people (2.65 million)

 

Sources: Report of the Technical group on population projections, office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India, Election Commission of India, Business Standard calculations.